Posted on 10/19/2020 5:34:52 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Funny you mention Clay. They have may have as many in-person votes in one day as they have thus far with all mail votes. Probably not but it will be close. Clay voters definitely prefer the in-person experience.
Did some quick touring of websites. I suspect these are all centralized so I’ll find a way to access these websites directly instead of Googling for these websites.
Clay County EV - 1,268 Rep, 617 Dem
https://www.votebrevard.gov/Election-Information/Election-Day-Turnout
Brevard County EV - 1,459 Rep, 1,253 Dem
https://www.lee.vote/Current-Election-Statistics
Lee County EV - 123 Rep, 140 Dem
https://www.colliervotes.com/2020-Election-Cycle/2020-General-Election#Legal%20Ads
Collier County EV - 673 Rep, 337 Dem
https://www.sumterelections.org
Sumter County - no EV data. (They embedded it in a very ugly way in their front page)
https://www.duvalelections.com/Election-Information/2020-General-Election-Turnout
Duval County EV - 5,105 Dem, 2,554 Rep
Note that Duval County is a swing county that went barely Trump in 2016. So shooting the big blue wad here. It might even out by end of this week.
Pretty good start in Palm Beach IEV as of 10:30am.
31% R
2016: 27.8
2018: 29.6
Obv VBM is a completely different animal this year but it will be interesting to compare IEV and what that means overall.
Whoa, seeing it update in real time is cool. Votes have doubled in Lee County already and Reps are beating Dems (as expected).
Someone mentioned on the thread yesterday that Rep counties don’t start early voting till the 24th? which would skew these until they come in.
About Duval. I vote in a strong Republican precinct. In 2016, only 40% of us voted early. Contrast that to a strong Democrat precinct of similar size. They voted 55% early in 2016.
Democrats are doing what they’ve been told and what they said they’re going to do — voting early and by mail.
Now that we’re in IPEV, Republicans will begin to narrow the gap (in % terms if not in gross numbers).
Good point
Yea, it varies by county in Florida when they start.
90% of the population starts early voting today.
The 10% not voting, I’m sure are R counties.
but again, 90% start today. That is much better than 2016 when even more R counties voted later.
college vote info here: https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/dems-in-absolute-panic-as-early-data-shatters-narrative-in-key-states/
That is very addictive. Watch November 3rd - now that will be fun. I remember tracking all these counties on 11/08/16 - I think I discovered it accidentally but what an awesome tool.
Most start today but several are late starters (10:00 am). Grrrr.
“I suspect these are all centralized so I’ll find a way to access these websites directly instead of Googling for these websites.”
_______________________________
There won’t be state-wide, real time data on IPEV. However, I’ll be looking here tomorrow to see if all IPEV results have been reported to SOE. https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicReports
The Florida Dem/Dim view: http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2020/10/19/15-days-out.html
“so I would expect in person early voting to be more Republican than normal”
Me too. If we don’t win IPEV, I will be disappointed.
“Voter Registration ... The Biden campaign made a decision to follow the public health guidance and limit in-person campaigning”
Whine, Whine, Whine.
Do you think IPEV will overtake VBM by Wednesday of this week?
Duval county has a tab to see breakout by party and location. Pretty cool
47-42?
It’s more than over. This will be a bloodbath.
“Do you think IPEV will overtake VBM by Wednesday of this week?”
Zero chance. 2,509,293 have voted by mail so far.
2016: 300k voted IPEV first day. With great turnout, maybe 300-400k today. Times 3 days. 900k-1m. Less than half of VBM.
Over take some time next week???
47-42 final result in Florida? You are an optimist. I love that!
I would take the Under on a 5 point spread....
PredictIt has a market on the Florida margin: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6927/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-presidential-election-in-Florida
In that market, I bought $700 “NO” Rep winning by 6% or more and “NO” Dem winning by 6% or more.
Betting markets give Biden 15% of winning by 6% or more in Florida. Trump 6% of winning by 6% or more in Florida.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.