North Carolina Early Vote and Vote-By-Mail

North Carolina State Board of Elections ^ | 10/17/20 | self

[Ravi]

Here are the RETURNED North Carolina VBM ballots and Early In-Person Votes combined (ballots accepted) but NOT counted.

1,248,886 ballots have been cast at this point. That is about 26% of ALL ballots cast in 2016.

13.7% of REPs and 22.6% of DEMs have voted.

10/17/20: REPs - 300,286, DEMs - 586,814, lead of 286,528 for DEMs, 47.0% to 24.0%

10/16/20: REPs - 191,666, DEMs - 438,932, lead of 247,2666 for DEMs, 49.3% to 21.6%

77.8% of those have voted this year voted in the 2016 General Election.

[Ravi]

I will try to post daily NC updates now that that in-person voting is up and running.

No one knows who anyone has voted for.

Trend is definitely favorable especially yesterday.

Cannibalization is occurring for both parties but probably affecting DEMs to a greater extent (will need to see Dr. Blitzer's data on this later this morning).

4.74 million ballots cast in 2016 (68.5% turnout).

I would fathom turnout would exceed 68.5% this year (not certain). Turn-out of 72% would yield about 5.26 million votes.

We are probably at about 25% of expected turn-out thus far.

NC is probably behaving like Georgia to an extent. Large Black push the first day or two and then a rapid taper (will need to confirm).

Black turnout in GA went from 34.4% overall about a week ago to 30.9% overall as of this morning.

Using Speedy's FL format. Also Byecomey probably has the information regarding the probable drop in VBM requests by all parties.

[Ravi]

ping

[Jess Kitting]

Black turnout in GA went from 34.4% overall about a week ago to 30.9% overall as of this morning.

How does overall turnout go down? Isn't it a cumulative number?

[deport]

Good question.

But I suspect it means as a Percentage of the total vote cast.........

[JonPreston]

Thanks for this excellent info.

[Ravi]

Apologize for the semantics. Black share of the total vote went from 34.4% a week ago to 30.9% as of this morning.

[Ravi]

My poor grammar

[PermaRag]

We shall see about this “cannibalization” effect. In-person turnout on November 3rd needs to favor the Republicans by an astronomical amount, not just in North Carolina, but anywhere it matters.

Better pray for good weather in the key locations of the swing states, and a lack of Democrat shenanigans at those polling places (ha). It’s not hard to picture lines way longer than usual, particularly affecting after-work (i.e. Republican) voters. Vote early if possible.

[LS]

No, BLACK turnout as a % of TOTAL turnout went down. Fewer blacks percentage wise showed up.

[LS]

No it doesn’t have to favor them in an “astronomical amount.” Where do you guys get this stuff?

It has to be normal. In Fl, so far, a NORMAL R election day turnout will win it. An increased R turnout will win it big.

Same as in NC. If you bother to follow byecomey’s blog (I think it’s called “joeisdone” you’ll see that Ds are underperforming their 2016 numbers at this point; Rs are overperforming.

[Karoo]

Thank you for doing this

[Vinnie]

We voted yesterday in Cary, in the rain. Took 2 hrs.
We were surprised at the turnout in the weather, weekday, morning.
The line snaked around but I’d estimate 200-250 yards long.

[Ravi]

Thats not really accurate. BTW I feel both sides are cannibalizing their vote (Dems more so) especially when 77.8 of votes cast come from 2016 voters. That pretty much is a textbook definition of cannibalization.

[Ravi]

Thanks! Enjoy this immensely

[Ravi]

Anytime. Make sure you follow Dr. McDonald and his elect hub.

[Swanks]

Sounds like Bond Park. I tried but could not stay 2 hrs. I have an absentee ballot which as backup i’ll hand deliver to the Election office. No way I trust USPS criminals.

[PermaRag]

It’s clear that more people (particularly Democrats) are voting by mail than every before, since we’ve never had a situation like this before.

I think there’s a decent chance of a surprise on Election Day when we presume Republicans will turn out in droves — and they will (or at least they BETTER). The surprising part is that so many Democrats turn out on November 3 too, much more than anticipated given that so very many of them are voting early or by mail. It may not happen that way, but if it does happen, wouldn’t some of these assumptions/predictions be thrown out of whack a bit?

It’s obvious that nobody should be expecting that turnout, whether in terms of total votes or % of population that votes, in 2020 is only going to match 2016 levels, and hopefully nobody is making any models which assume that.

[yoe]

Why the push to vote early? Could it be knowledge of the Biden Crime Family coming out?

(ballot error)
(error)
(misprinted)
(error) etc., etc., etc.

Too many ballots found mailed or not mailed, never getting to their intended addresses...many articles reporting ballot mistakes or out-right thievery.

[dfwgator]

But Rats are also more scared of the Rona than Republicans, so if they aren’t particularly fired up about Biden, they may just choose to sit it out.

[cherry]

otoh....mailing in your ballot early or voting early just gives the rats more time to conjure up the exact number of votes they need....this happens all the time in Washington, where all the votes are submitted or counted and we await inner Seattle to finish and they find all sorts of boxes of ballots "forgotten" here and there, all remarkably for the rats.....

we will mail ours the afternoon of election day at the post office.....