I understand the high rejection rate though the article indicated that 90% of them are doubles....errors so they shouldn’t affect these expected vs. actual numbers. The 3:1 split D vs R on already voted looks about right though, as expected in the poll and in the reported results.
But, if only 8.2% of the 2016 total voter count has voted that would leave 91.8% more votes to come to reach the 2016 level.
But, since the poll supposedly measures the entire likely voter electorate regardless of when they were going to vote and it indicated that 14.7% of them already had voted which would leave 85.3% more votes expected to come to match the 2016 level, what explanation could there be for the shortfall except that voting is below expectations.
Any thoughts?
I think Republican voters will vote in person since voter fraud is a real issue this year. I suspect Democrats (due to covid) are more likely to vote absentee. We’ll see.