Great interview of Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) here where he breaks down his very successful polling method (Correct in both 2016 and 2018) and gives his predictions for 4 battleground states:
https://luckboxmagazine.com/TPT/
He thinks the shy Trump voter numbers are even higher this year than in 2016.
And sets the record straight that he still does not add anything to the Trump numbers to make up for that (as others had accused.) He just uses a lot more platforms to try to reach more of the those voters who are VERY reluctant to respond to polls.
Also, this was interesting....he said Republicans are hard to poll because they are 5 times less likely to participate in polls in general.
Also said that they see lots of voters who say they are going to vote for Biden but based on how they answered other questions like do you approve of fracking (they do); do you support strict constructionist supreme court justices (they do); do you support defunding the police (they dont.) he believes they are lying about voting for Biden but he still records them as Biden voters...:-)
Said his polls show Trump is doing great with Hispanic and black voters. His polls predict mid to high teens for black vote. Said Trump actually got 10% of the black vote in 2016 even though exit polls showed 8%. Said voters who dont want to disclose they are voting for Trump over the phone sure dont want to admit it to a kid with a clip board after voting...:-)
Great news!
Why is he not 50 points ahead you might ask. :)