Posted on 10/05/2020 8:52:17 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update # 201
As of 10/04/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information3
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Fatalities and New Cases in the United States
Fatalities dropped by 419 cases from the previous day, to come in at 334
yesterday. That was a 21.01% increase from the same day the week before.
New Cases dropped by 15,457 from the day before, to come in at 36,066
yesterday. That was an 6.86% increase from the same day the week before.
Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene
Fatalities dropped by 1,041 cases from the previous day, to come in at 3,654
yesterday. That was a 00.11% decrease from the same day last week.
New Cases fell by 37,423 cases from the day before, to come in at 267,248
yesterday. This was a 10.87% increase from the same day the week before.
Global Recoveries Very High for the Day
After checking contributing numbers going back three days, I detemined that
the 500,992 Recoveries yesterday was not a clerical error on my part. That
number is anywhere from 40% to 100% higher than the largest figures I remeber
seeing. This resulted in the Active Cases falling by 237,598 on the day.
Resolved cases were driven up over 78.00% due to the Recoveries.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Here we go...
New Case Declarations fell by a considerable amount yesterday.
Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here are more of our numbers...
Active Cases rose more than I like again yesterday. We rose above the record
2,571,000 and change figure that was the all time high set on 09/01/20. We
had managed to stay below that since then, but we have a new high now.
Take note of the Serious/Critical case situation on the right there.
They've been going up and down recently.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our slice of the pie has been increasing recently.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.
Yesterday we looked better in on categore and terrible in the other.
As the number of active cases in the Global Scene fell by 237,000, it
allowed our number to make up a larger portion of the new lower total.
We didn't do worse.
Active Cases in the United States / Chart
Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.
Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.
Active Cases fell yesterday. I'm not sure if anyone else sees this the way
I do, which translates to the possibility I am wrong on this, but I see the
flattening during the first two weeks of June, to have been the end of the
first wave. It looks like the end of the second wave right now to me.
The question is, where do we go from here? Are we positioning for a third
wave or are we going to start moving down in earnest? We'll soon find out.
Fauci has let it be know, he still thinks were on the first wave. He may be
right. I'm not sure what the scientific requirements are to declare a wave
over. If it settles down, that seems like an end to me, and the chart looks
for all the world like a second wave to me.
Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup
Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.
Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.
Testing fell off a small amount yesterday. Positive percentages fell across
the board.
Positive percentages slipped lower yesterday.
The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
I like the New Case Declarations line right now. They are ever so slightly
moving in the direction of flattening.
The active case line has flattened out.
I have been saying I wasn't too happy with the Recoveries and Resolved Cases
lines there. At the present time they don't seem moving toward flattening any
longer. They may show some strengthling almost imperceptibly.
Compare to the rise of Recovered and Resolved cases on the Global Scene to see
a different more healthy trajectory. These look lethargic by comparison, but a
a little less so.
You can right click view to see the Global Chart enlarged.
United States Movers and Shakers...
I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.
Here we go...
Texas and Florida took the top spots yesterday.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland thereChina
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
New Case Declartations fell off nicely yesterday. (lower reporting period)
Take note of that Resolved column numbers. What a day in that category.
The Resolved percent came in at 77.972% yesterday. It has been showing
some weakness recently, as it relates to going higher.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
Active Cases fell off by over 237,000 cases for the day. Serious/Critical
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Let's see...
This metric fell again during these lower reporting days of the week.
It was a Sunday and the numbers fell off here.
The blue line is thinking. We'll give it some time...
The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart
As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.
Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
The two charts above had looked like they were revealing flattening, but as
the days went by, they began moving upward again.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)
Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
Spain - OUCH! (Will you look at Spain! Wow!)
France - Ooo
To be honest, it looks like all these nations are showing an inclination to
move up.
I checked the parameters for Spain, and they were correct. That growth is
amazing.
Frace is suffering the same fate.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?
Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
Sweden has flattened out a bit after that correction a while back.
The Netherlands is just going ballistic.
We do need to keep it in perspective though. While the raw numbers do show
the Netherlands to be going orbital, the per million figures are still a lot
less than Sweden's.
Global Movers and Shakers...
I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.
Here we go...
India led out in both categories again yesterday, and the case margin was
back over double the next closest nation.
Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
This chart revealed more of a flattening, but no more. There have been some
drops in the numbers of Active Cases, and then the size of their increased
numbers as they grow recently. Both are good signs of a more healthy situation.
In the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.
That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.002% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
We wound up at 78.024% for Resolved Cases yesterday Globally. This was due
in part to the massive number of recovered cases.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Active Cases fell off by over 237,000 cases yesterday, and due to the
massive number of Recoverd Cases reported out yesterday.
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Here is the data for four entities...
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.
Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
The number of fatalities fell off across the board. It's the lower reporting
time of the week again.
Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.
Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.
Our Fatalities fell off again yesterday. Nice...
Seems like we've settled into a Ground-Hog day situation here, living the same
COVID-19 day over and over and over...
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.
This report was a ittle better than the day before yesterday, which was
abysmal.
reports in a while.
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
I expanded the levels here yesterday. We had nations who were seeing serious
growth, and their levels weren't showing up very well at the top.
Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 5,000 cases,
but they have far lees of them still Active. Over 25% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.
And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Sunday's number was about 16,000 higher than the previous record for the
day. What I don't like about this is that we are beginning the week at a
higher level. We'll see if tha hurts us or not.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.
There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.
These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China did not update that number until 09/02/20. On that date they
raised the number to 160,000,000. As of October 3rd, 2020, they haven't updeded
it again. So I do not inlude China in the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding
Testing, and any place that reports out global testing numbers for a top level
comparison.
Please note that global testing on the Dashboard was only deducting China's
90,410,000 figure from 09/02 through 10/02/2020. I should have been
deducting the 160,000,000 figure, and all global figures during that period
were 69,590,000 tests too high.
We remained in 20th place here yesterday.
Over the last couple of months we've been in this rut from 19th to 16th place.
Now we're at 20th place for three days in a row.
Section: 10
Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers
Listed in the order of current utilization...
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, Nations219,
and the CDC Provisional Counts53
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats for October 5
Date from PA Department of Heatlh as of midnight October 4/5
LTC deaths = 5485 (increase of 2)
Total deaths = 88227 (increase of 11)
LTC as percentage of total = 66.7
Barely over 2/3 but still there. Still the worst percentage in the NE-US.
Tighten your mask, Tommie!
I know there is a lag, but yesterday the deaths were 1% of new cases.
Yeah, even less than 1%.
If we go back seven weeks (on the Dashboard), and look at
average deaths per day vs average new cases per day, it’s
not quite as rosy. Still...
There are a lot of cases where people barely notice anything
different in their life.
When all is said and done, it will be interesting what final
mortality rate the attribute to COVID-19.
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