[bort]

1) Despite being heavily targeted to vote by mail, black voters are lagging big time. Blacks make up 21% of the NC electorate, but make up 16% of mail ballots returned. Whites make up 65% of the electorate but have cast 73% of mail ins. "Other races"--which probably includes biracial blacks, is 14% of the electorate but has returned 10% of the mail-ins. In 2012, when Obama lost NC, blacks made up over 22% of the electorate.

2) 7% of black mail-in ballots are from those who were registered to vote in 2016 and did not vote (The bulk of mail-ins by black voters are from those who voted early -in-person in 2016). Interestingly, 7% of all Republicans who have mailed in ballots sat out the 2016 election. Only 5% of ballots cast by Democrats as a whole are from those who sat out 2016.

3) The rejection rate for mail-ins by blacks (no witness, signature missing, etc.) is 5% (!) compared to 2% for white ballots. Yet despite this disparity, shockingly Democrats as a whole are slightly LESS likely to have their ballots rejected. So if blacks (and younger voters) are the Democrat base and they screw up their ballots at very high rates, how can DEMOCRATS be getting LESS ballots rejected? Answer: This Democrat pool of mail-in voters is obviously much OLDER and WHITER than NC Democrats as a group, which means it contains a healthy chunk of cross-over Trump voters. Discuss...

[bort]

Ping.

[Meatspace]

Lots of North Carolina Democrats vote Republican and no North Carolina Republicans vote Democrat.

[Ravi]

Good work! Can’t wait until one-stop early voting starts October 15th.

[econjack]

Are the Democrats in trouble?

Yep, because they picked a candidate who can't form a complete sentence without help from a hidden communications device or a teleprompter. Yep, that's who the Democrats want running the country...an automaton who acts like a puppet to every whim of the Deep State.

[Cathi]

I think blacks are going to be a big disappointment to democrats this year. They understandably lack enthusiasm for Biden (as do democrats in general.) And they do not have the same degree of animosity to Trump as many democrats do because they have fared so much better under Trump the last 4 years than they did under the previous black administration.

I think Trump will get a higher percent of black voters this time; but I also think the black vote will be down overall.

Bottom line: Not mad enough at Trump; not excited enough about Biden.

[tired&retired]

How do they make sure that they don’t mail in, especially at the last minute and also show up to vote? Is there a check system?

[LeoTDB69]

I’ll be voting on election day in NC as an Unaffiliated. Many of my friends also left the (R)ino party out of frustration several years ago.