Posted on 09/23/2020 8:39:39 AM PDT by fireman15
I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. I opined, based on my modelling, that the HIT probably lay somewhere between 7% and 24%, and that evidence from Stockholm County suggested it was around 17% there, and had been reached.
I then showed in a July 27th update article[1] that mounting evidence supported my reasoning.
It is pleasing to report that the evidence for heterogeneity of susceptibility across the population, arising from variability in both social connectivity and biological susceptibility, has continued to increase. Not least, there have been a number of further papers reporting pre-existing cross-reactive T-cells in a substantial proportion of people, which as I discussed in my July 27th article is likely be a key reason for heterogeneity in biological susceptibility. Mainstream journals are now starting to acknowledge that these factors are significant, with the implication that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) can be expected to be substantially lower than that often quoted by scientists close to governments. Unfortunately, in the UK at least, there is little sign as yet that those scientific advisors are prepared to recognise these facts.[2] [3]
Here I will focus excerpt on statements in a recent, quite hard hitting, feature article in the British Medical Journal by one of its associate editors.[4]
(Excerpt) Read more at wattsupwiththat.com ...
Very interesing video link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FU3OibcindQ&feature=youtu.be
There is no such thing as “herd immunity” as no immunity is actually created. What is called herd immunity is mearly a lack of exposure.
What is your conclusion on how we should react to Covid?
I hope you were wearing your mask when you posted this Fear-porn about COVID.
It is contagious over fiber-optic lines.
Protect those that are most vulneable - elederly and those with compromised or at risk. So application of stricter cleaning and visiting requirements for nursing homes and hospitals. Those that are compromised are “safer at home”.
Warn others about covid
No mask reqirements but recommendation
So allow those that are at higher risk, to work from home, not go out in publice etc.
Vaccine work is great but should be voluntary
It may not hurt to examine your sources of misinformation. Well just a thought.
U r wrong
Sorry friend, you have it completely backwards. You probably should look up the definition of “herd immunity”.
We had the first known case of Covid right in our backyard here on January 20 in Washington State. And as speculated by many months ago, it has now been shown that Covid-19 was making the rounds far earlier than initially thought in our area and in California. In Eastern King County we have 500,000 recent arrivals from China living amongst us and many travel back to China on a regular basis. I don't give a hoot about the vaccine, because after over 6 months of a highly contagious virus going around our community pretty much everyone who was going to have a problem with it already did. And all this nonsense we have been put through was just a waste of time and resources.
What you’re posting is false and will create unnecessary fear in people.
Immunity is created. It’s created by T-cell and B-cell activation and by ~10% of the B-cells remaining after antibody production ceases as Memory B-cells. They’ll immediately activate if the same pathogen is encountered again later.
There are 7 coronaviruses known to infect humans. 4 of those 7 are well known as they cause mild to moderate respiratory symptoms and are among the over 200 viruses known to cause the “common cold”. Immunity to those typically lasts about 2 years. During that time, antigenic shift makes it less likely for the immune system to recognize them, so after around 2-3 years, you’ll be susceptible again. But not during that time. Any encounter with the same virus will immediately trigger a flood of antibodies specifically designed to destroy it.
Both of you have drunk the CDC coolaid. Here are the facts.
In any given FIXED population, there are several responses to an infection.
Group A will get the infection and either will be cured, or survive and develop antibodies - they have immunity
Group B will get a vaccine if it is available and will develop antibodies - they have immunity
Group C will neither get the infection and for what ever reason, do not receive the vaccine - they are NOT immune
Group D will be those in group A or B who loose their immunity - they are NOT immune.
Now remember, we are deal only with a FIXED population. In this scenario if there are enough people in groups A & B and a small enough percent of the population in C & D, then the government / scientist / medical personnel CLAIM “herd immunity”. Understand that no actual immunity is provided to groups C & D. If they are exposed, because they have no immunity, they can get the illness.
Further, the population is no longer fixed at a local or even national level. People travel and someone who is a carrier can and often does, travel into the population bringing the illness back into play. Witness the recent outbreaks of childhood illnesses that were brought back to the US during the recent illegal migration from Latin America, even after having aceived “herd immunity”
So if we have achieved “herd immunity”, say well into the 90+ percent, there are still those who can and will get the illness - they are NOT immune. They are relying on a lack of exposure to the illness. If someone exposes them, they are just as likely to get sick as before the so called “herd immunity”.
I know how this works all too well. As a child, I was contra indicated for the small pox vaccine due to a skin condition. During my school years, my district would put out a notice to all of us that could not receive all of our vaccines. I had to ... every year ... reaffirm that I could not receive the vaccine and that I was still not vaccinated.
When I joined the Army at 18, my skin condition had subsided and I was able to get the vaccine then. I am very pro voluntary vaccine. I have traveled the world with my job and I have been vaccinated against just about everything except Japanese Encephalitis.
My point is simply this. The term “herd immunity” is used by the government as a subtle manipulation and is an attempt to get everyone to comply, via social shaming, to getting a vaccine. In fact, there is ONLY individual immunity. Anything else is simply a lack of exposure.
Context is important in your explanation. I get what you’re saying in this post but your first one was too vague to get your meaning.
My source is the CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/terms/glossary.html - definition of Active Immunity vs Community Immunity (Herd immunity)
Not in the definition of Community Immunity the use of the terms “unlikely” and “little opportunity”, etc.
The term herd immunity has been recognized before most of us were born.
Blah blah blah.
There are lots of guys worshipping at the altar of herd immunity. Anyone notice that another virus, smallpox, was around for 1000s of years and herd immunity didn’t erase it? Only a vaccine did.
HIV is out there what, about 40+ yrs now? Herd immunity means nothing for it, too. Without the mixture of treatments, you get it, you die. It’s just another virus. Why didn’t it disappear?
Then there is Ebola. Another 40 year virus. Herd immunity has done jack for it, too.
No law of the universe says herd immunity works for a virus whose antibody density falls to zero in 2-3 months. There is zero proof of it.
No one really knows anything. Well, we do know one thing. We got excess deaths this year in big numbers compared to previous years, and for the 65+ people it’s enroute to 15% more. 2 million 65+ people die in the US in a typical year. We’re enroute right now to about 2.3 million.
We don’t solidly know anything other than that.
We’re in agreement
First “coolaid” is spelled Kool-Aid... if you are going to try and make an insult at least take the time to find the proper spelling or use the built in spell check here so that you do not appear to be an idiot.
Second, I am not a big fan of the career leftists at the CDC who have done all that they could to amplify and extend this nonsensical panic for political reasons.
Group C will neither get the infection and for what ever reason, do not receive the vaccine - they are NOT immune
I am sorry but your beliefs on this are completely backwards and nonsensical and you would be much better off just keeping your mouth shut.
And has been a false teaching or propaganda from the begining. It is used to reduce the perception of personal risk regarding getting a vaccine by creating a social obligation to get the vaccine.
To rephase their argument:
You need to take this vaccine, dispite the personal risk of injury or even death, so that the community can be protected.
Wouldn’t those with “pre-existing cross-reactive T-cells” (from common-cold coronaviruses) still get COVID-19, but only a mild case?
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