Correction here, where I wrote...
“At least one of them started Phase 3 injections last month.”
The second injections for Phase 3 were given last month. The first injections were administered well *more* than a month ago.
Actually the Phase 3 trial requires 30000 participants so there is some time lag as people volunteer and are cleared through the process. First shots to some were given in late July and the second shot 29 days later was thus in late August. As of last week they still need volunteers for the Moderna mRNA version and were still giving first shots. That being said the phase 3 participants are likely reaching a stage where a statistically significant number have been exposed and I would suspect the placebo group contracting the disease vs what is happening to the group actually receiving the vaccine is giving early indications of effectiveness. It would not be surprising at all for a reasonable conclusion being sustainable in mid October with the data Avalilable to back it up. Phase 3 participants will be providing data for 24 months, and there’s no way we can wait 2 years for the full study completion.