COVID-19 Update - 08/09/2020

My own workup | 08/09/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 144

As of 08/08/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Fatalities

Fatalities were off 329 cases from the previous day, to come in at 970. That was
a 15.50% decrease from last week's Saturday.

Global and Domestic New Case Declarations

Global New Cases came in slightly higher than the week before, at 263,551. That
was a 3.29% increase from the week before.

U. S. New Cases were down 7.10% from last week, coming in at 54,312. Testing came
in at 759,753 compared to the 636,628 the week before. That was a 12.32%
increase from the week before.

That would intimate that New Cases should have risen by roughly 12.32% or 7,202
cases. That didn't happen, as we fell off 4,151 cases.

New Trend in Lower US Declared Cases Defies Elevated Testing Logic

I've been going by the theory that if you test twice as many people, you're likely
to find twice as many New Cases. Let's face it. If you're testing the same body
of people, and you test more, to me it would stand to reason you would find
relatively the same positive testing percentage in the second half, you did in the
first. Well, yesterday it didn't play out that way, at least as this observer
would think that it would.

Testing rose 12.32% higher yesterday than last week. Interestingly (at least
to me), New Cases fell off by 7.10%. Even if we calculate the drop off of
the postive percentage, that would only account for 928 of the 4,151 decrease
in active caes decleared for the day. Postive testing That would only account
for 22.36% of the count drop in New Cases.

Here we are going in the opposite direction. Testing is slacking off for whatever
reason, and so New Case numbers are falling. Again I mention this to alert folks
not to adopt a false impression. The falling New Case declarations now, are not
solely due to an improving infectious environment. Testing is off by a certain
percent, so naturally not as many New Cases are being detected.

This is not a criticism of testing. It's about seeing the situation for what it
truly is.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

That's a pretty big drop. As stated above in the comments, this drop went
against my higher testing/higher New Cases theory. Please review the comments
above.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active Cases continued with normal growth yesterday. A couple of times this week
their numbers actually fell.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been increasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

We saw better numbers for three days, and now see a return to the mixed
bag this catergory has been more often than not lately.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Back in early June, I was hoping we were finally seeing the light. Welllll...
not exactly. Look where we've gone from there. Now the red seven-day averaging
line is beginning to resemble the same flattening from that June period. I hope
that matures with the U. S. making a good go at defeating this disease.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

Testing Levels rose yeterday, while the postive percentage went town.

In the Commentary Section I address this interesting turn of events.

The three-day aveaging line changed only a little yesterday, since the
single day figure came in very close to the running average.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

Okay, I believe we are seeing an ever so slightly beginning of a move toward
flattening there on that top blue Declared Cases line. The numbers have indicated
this type of move for seven days now. It should show up more prominantly here if
this continues for a few more days.

The red Active Case line is showing some improvement there also. It has been
partially hidden, and is emerging mor flattened out. Would like to see that
continue and improve.

United States Movers and Shakers...

I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.

Here we go...

Florida topped both categories yeterday. Texas has seemd to do a bit better.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

New Cases came in very high yesterday.

Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Active Cases grew at a normal pace yesterday in this region.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

Yesteray this area improved yesterday.

Yesterday's numbers fell off a bit from Friday. The Global Scene was still in
very high territory, while the numbers in the U. S. were more moderate by
recent standings.

That blue line is dropping off recent highs. That is the current trend
and I'm hopeful it will continue. Of course that belies the fact our testing
has been down recently, so this is likely somewhat artificial rather than a
clear breakthrough.

. The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Spain continues to spike upwards in its New Cases, and it seems to be getting
stronger, not weaker. All these nations are seeing their recent case declarations
rise. Several other nations have seen a noticable rise in recent days. Are they
about to go the way of Spain?

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden's New Case level had been moderating, but we can see a bit of an upturn
back to old habits there, so to speak. I was hoping we had seen the worst of it.

Looks like the Netherlands is making a move there also, and in the wrong direction.

Global Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

The United States is stilly vying for both categories here, but missed out
on the first one to India yesterday.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.013% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved<, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

We moved into the 67.0% zone of the Resolved Case rate. It looks as if 68.0%
might be soon to follow. That being said, our rise has slowed to a snail's
pace over the last five days.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

The Serious/Critical case Load has improved over the last week, but yesterday
the Global Community lost ground. That light grey number on the far right
denotes some activity in Mainland China starting around ten days ago. Not
taking it to mean much more than that there is some activity going on in China,
that isn't being fully reported, AGAIN!

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Fatalities fell off in the U. S. yesterday, by 15.58% from the previous week.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

Fatalities fell off a little yesterday. From the week before we were down 11.45%.

This chart pretty well tells the story. Higher highs and higher lows... There
seems to be a move heading lower right now. That was reflected here minimally.
In coming days, I hope to see that become more pronounced. None of us know for
sure though, so we continue to hope for the best and check the numbers.

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

Even though these stats aren't as some we have seen recently, we're still doing
a bit better than we were.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

It's hard to belive there are that many nations with 1,000 cases.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Three of the five recent days shown there, fail to depict a new record for
the specific day of the week. That is a big deal. Momentum has momentarily
gone flat or a bit of a retreat.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.

After a few days in 18th place in this category, we fell back to 19th two days
aga and remained there yesterday.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[amorphous]

Glad I could pass it on. :)

[stormhill]

This goes to my point. I’m not willing to believe those numbers are real. They have been massaged, twisted and manipulated to create a false picture of reality. “Cases” and “deaths“ are being conflated in the public’s mind; patients who die “with” Covid are reported as having died “of” it, etc.
This whole thing has the foul stench of political expediency. I’ll wager a million dollars that shortly after the election the aura of urgency about it will quietly evaporate.

[2aProtectsTheRest]

The numbers are of course very much preliminary. We don’t get final numbers for Influenza deaths until about 2 years after the end of a particular flu season, and even then it’s a range estimate for hospitalizations and deaths. There have been some cases widely reported of incorrect death certificates where COVID-19 was improperly listed as the OCOD. There are also significant numbers of unexplained excess deaths during the height of COVID-19 in New York City which suggests they’ve been undercounted as well.

The truth is, we don’t have an exact number and we never will have one that’s perfect. We have basic estimates based on all the data submitted by all the hospitals and health departments in the nation. That data is not useless; it’s helpful for mapping trends, identifying hotspots, assigning supplies like PPE, hospital staffing and logistics, and so on. Without it, we’re flying blind and that will cost lives. It’s important that we recognize the numbers as imperfect while using them as tools to stay prepared and avoid situations like what we saw in Italy where people were dying in the hallways of the hospitals. That should never happen here, especially not for something as manageable as COVID-19 is. It’s no smallpox. We should always be ahead of it.

[deport]

My bad. It was intended for amorphous

[DoughtyOne]

https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/07/27/Three-quarters-of-adults-with-COVID-19-have-heart-damage-after-recovery/5451595856303/?spt=su&or=btn_tw&ur3=1

[Paul R.]

Good point. While fatalities are of course the bigger concern, just as in a war, the long lasting “injuries” and (often) lengthy recoveries themselves are a large drag on a society / economy.

As to your question in the OP, I think a lot depends on how many of the tests are demand driven by people with actual symptoms or reason to believe they’ve been exposed, vs. how many of the tests are screenings (think: Athletes and such) OR, essentially, are sampling of the (more or less) general population. The latter group, screenings plus sampling, should show a low positivity rate. But I’d think the former group would jump much more during a surge.

That said, some of the other fluctuations you’ve noted over past weeks don’t “fit” the above, and I can only ascribe them to hiccups in the data collection and unknowns (at least to me!)

Thanks again for all the data. I really hope we can get this thing tamped down to well below June 2020 numbers before Fall gets here in earnest, or we’ll most likely see much worse health and economic damage, then. That would, I’m fairly sure, seal Trump’s fate in the election. But, I ask myself, is that much “tamping down” a reasonable goal? I am unsure.

[Paul R.]

Good tip.

One slight bug: In order to know if you have returned to precisely the same scaling you usually use (100%, in my case), you’ll have to go into your browser settings menu (at least in IE.) Or count mouse wheel detents in both directions. Of course (at least in IE) the setting menu gets one directly to the zoom function as a % if one prefers that, such as for printing consistent size screen shots of whatever. (Say, a utility bill with really light print in some spots that one wishes to darken in something like IrfanView B4 printing it.)

[amorphous]

Good points. Watch the right side of the address bar at the top, and on most browsers the % change will appear once you move the mouse wheel. Edge, Chrome, and Brave even have a button, which appears at the same time, that will set everything back to normal just by clicking it. Firefox gives you the %, but not the reset button. Not sure about IE.

Another function I use a lot, is to hold the function key down and press the *Prnt Scrn* key to capture the screen to memory. You can then open your fav graphics program, or even some word processors, and paste the image to them. Then you can print it, or save it as an image. I use this a lot for bills, orders, and etc.

[Paul R.]

Yes, I use Fn + Print Screen and Irfanview just as you say and then as I described (to improve the image, often.)

IE seems to be the only browser not displaying the little “zoom” pop up window once zoom is being used. Granted that IE is getting rather long in the tooth. But I like it’s print options best. I often use IE’s print preview to generate a more usable copy of an Invoice or whatever to then do a screen capture, modify the image quality, and save.

Anyway, we’re pretty OT here. (My fault! But, useful stuff!)

[Paul R.]

This sort of thing hardly helps with data consistency:

CA Public Health Director Tenders Late-Night Resignation After “Glitch” Delays 300,000 Test Results

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3873154/posts

[Paul R.]

Agreed!!! Very well stated.

[amorphous]

IE is dated. Not sure if MS even supports now. Like you, I’m a hanger-on, but using an unsupported browser is surfing dangerously in shark infested waters these days. There are better alternatives. :)