Posted on 08/01/2020 6:57:52 PM PDT by Mariner
Under its vocally anti-American President Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines has emerged as a focal point between China and the US in their continuing contest for dominance in the region.
After years of cosier ties between Manila and Beijing, at the expense of the Philippines' traditional alliance with the US, Duterte last month appeared to signal a retreat from his anti-Washington stance by reversing an earlier decision to scrap a key military agreement with the US in June.
While analysts say Duterte is unlikely to change his policy on China any time soon, the shift to reinstate the Visiting Forces Agreement - which gives legal status to US troops stationed in the country - underlines the difficult balancing act the Philippines must strike in its dealings with the two powers.
As tensions have flared between China and the US, the Philippines has become part of their strategic confrontation amid Beijing's growing aggression in the resource-rich South China Sea - also one of the world's busiest shipping routes - where China's claims to most of the waters are disputed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.
Washington needs the support of Manila and other key partners in Southeast Asia in its efforts to push back on Beijing's ambitions in the region. For China, maintaining ties with the Philippines is equally important amid its rising confrontation with the US.
The US took a stronger stance in the middle of July when Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared support for the 2016 ruling by an international tribunal which rejected most of Beijing's claims in the South China Sea.
It was a historic victory for the Philippines, which took the dispute to The Hague, but China has never accepted the decision.
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
Heavy bombers could also cover the entire Chinese mainland.
Of course there's a lot of air power in Guam and Japan as well. And a sub base on both.
Subic Bay could be a third. And Cubi Point yet another military airfield.
The Philippino people all have at least one close relative in the US.
If Dutarte doesn't get his mind right he will soon be deposed and his own people will do it.
This really freaks China out.
Dutarte is the Germany of Asia
It's probably ok because I am sure the Chines would never ever treat anyone like they were treated at Nanking. Never. I am sure they are humane slave-masters.
This is China expressing public concern (SCMP) while trying to not show how alarmed they are by the renewal of the Visiting Forces Agreement.
And minimizing just how big a deal this is.
Clark is not a viable option. It was a total loss. Many years ago FedEx evaluated both Clark and CUBI Point and hands-down selected CUBI Point as their SE Asia hub. FedEx after evaluating both facilities stated it was a no-brainer decision.
I was stationed at the Subic/CUBI base at the time of the Pinatubo eruption. Working at CUBI and living on Subic. Even if the Philippine Senate did not vote against the wishes of the people and terminate our SoFA the Air Force considered Clark a total loss and had no plans to rebuild and remain.
In my 26 years in, I spent 9 years of my career stationed at CUBI Point.
Yeah, he’s a slimy and personally selfish bastard.
Crooked as they come. And Anti American. True personal animus.
That’s why the VFA is such a big deal.
It shows somebody(s) else is really in charge with the election still 2 years out.
Clark is dilapidated, at best.
All facilities need renovation.
But the grade of the runways remains true.
USAF didn’t want to spend the money. Our priorities had shifted elsewhere. And the money was needed elsewhere.
But the place could be entirely rebuilt in 60 days for mere money. New buildings/hangars, plumbing and electrical, runways, underground fuel storage etc.
It’s the most strategic airfield in the Pacific.
No one is going to spend a dime to do any of that. Duterte has only begrudgingly reversed his no US visiting forces position. He would never agree to any sort of semi-permanent presence. A permanent presence would not be authorized by him or their Senate.
Duterte is a socialist. His heart is with the communist Chinese. His problem is, he misjudged the Chinese ambitions.
Instead of the Chinese gov’t making nice and partnering with the Philippines they viewed Duterte as a useful idiot and asserted themselves in the Philippine region and dared the Philippines to do anything to stop them.
The Chinese lost in International Court and the Chinese laughed at the decision and basically told the court to go pound sand. How are you going to enforce that decision? They have gotten more aggressive since that decision to make the point they could not care less.
Even after all of that Duterte’s anti-American instincts and pro-socialist instincts caused him to continue to make stupid decisions regarding an American presence in the Philippines.
A permanent presence will be announced within a year.
This is an investment the US is willing to make.
It’s a strategically essential interest for the US, and the Philippines. If Dutarte gets in the way of that, he’ll disappear.
Confucius say:
If you not careful & fall while
Straddling Fence
You may have nasty crack up
I won’t hold my breath waiting for that. It wouldn’t be conducive to a long life.
Is SEATO (SouthEast Asia Treaty Organization) dead? Seems like we have a PERFECT excuse for the aggrieved countries to meet up...and a framework in which to operate.
From Clark AFB US fighters can control the entire South China Sea and be within strike range of Taipei, Hainan and some areas of the coastal mainland.
Heavy bombers could also cover the entire Chinese mainland.
Of course there’s a lot of air power in Guam and Japan as well. And a sub base on both.
Subic Bay could be a third. And Cubi Point yet another military airfield.
The Philippino people all have at least one close relative in the US.
If Dutarte doesn’t get his mind right he will soon be deposed and his own people will do it.
This really freaks China out.
***************
If things go sideways enough for all those to be pluses on our side of the equation in rounds down range and munitions delivered, it’s good to keep in mind that the reverse is true too.
Much of Luzon was in range of Japanese aircraft flying out of China in WW2. That situation is worse now with the Chicomm forces in south China and Hunan.
Fighters, fighter bombers, bombers and missile swarms.
Not suggesting the PI is or should be a write off, but its well in the danger zone.
Its no longer dilapidated.
Clark has become the air freight hub of most of the country.
Its long since taken over most of this business from NAIA (Manila international and domestic airport), which has held on to the bulk of the passenger business.
These days with Covid Clark is much, much busier than NAIA.
It would be tough to repurpose Clark as an air force base because it is now a very busy civilian airport of vital importance to the national economy.
I don’t know whether its practical to shoehorn in a permanent AFB into that, build anew elsewhere or use some other facility.
A great deal has changed in 30 years.
The entire Philippines is in range of Chinese strike aircraft from Hainan and South China.
Worse, the Philippines is extremely vulnerable to airstrikes. Much of its economy depends on interisland trade that can be nearly entirely shut down by naval strike aircraft. And moreover its infrastructure is dotted by single or small numbers of critical points such as refineries, petroleum storage, electric plants, coal terminals (at the island of Semirara, in Batangas, etc.), even critical highway bridges that are logistically irreplacable. There is little redundancy.
President Duterte is anti-Obama. President Trump has been repairing relations.
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