Posted on 07/22/2020 2:23:31 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update # 126
As of 07/21/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information3
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Overview of Fatalities
Yesterday's Fatalities rose up over 1,000 for the day, ending up at 1,118.
In the last update before this one, I had mentioned that Fatalities had been
coming in at 10.0% or so higher than the same day the previous week, for a while.
It seemed to me that even though our counts have been fairly low for a while,
warning signs were there in the last day or two. That 1,118 was the highest
legitimate count we've had since around June 5th.
We have had higher days, but they involved states blowing out their counts with
some kind of accounting adjustment.
I'm not sure we'll be over 1,000 up until the weekend. We may have another day or
so above 1,000, but maybe not. We have seen some big numbers on Tuesdays and
Wednesdays, and then fall off on the next day. Unlike a few days ago, I am seeing
more of a trend upward based on those 10.0% increases week over week I mentioned.
More Global Milestones...
On the Global scene today, total Declared Cases expanded beyond the fifteen million
mark. coming in at 15,129,107. Now of course that doesn't mean that we have that
many active cases. Many fatalities and far more recoveries have combined to
Resolve 9.736,269 or 64.355% of those cases by now. This has left 5,392,838
remaining Active Cases.
More Domestic Milestones...
Here at home in the Uniited States today, total Declared Cases expanded beyond the
four million mark. Again, many fatalities and mrany more recoveries have combined
to resolve 2,031,536 cases. This has left 1,997,197 remaining Active Cases.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America
Here we go...
New Cases were up nearly 4,200 yesterday. That was a 6.62% increase. Note also
that we have now resolved over 50.0% of our Declared Cases.
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here are more of our numbers...
Our Active Cases are still growing due to all the positive testing, but the growth
was quite minimal yesterday. They only increased a little over 3,000 cases. You
see that the growth has generally been anywhere from 3 to as much as 12 times as
much growth per day.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our slice of the pie has been increasing recently.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.
More minimalist growth here,... but over time it adds up. You can verify that by
looking back a few weeks.
Active Cases in the United States / Chart
Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.
Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.
Clearly the single, seven, and fourteen day lines are moving way up.
Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup
Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.
Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.
Look at that zig zag direction the positive percentage has been taking.
As I've mentioned before, the Positive Percentage bounces around a lot. I'm not
sure that causes me to trust this information much. You can't tell me the
Postive Percentage actually goes down a full 1.833% one day and back up 2.40% the
next. A cross section of people should remain rather constant, going up or down
minimally as the trend changes. Logically, at least to me, with that many
tests, the Postive Percentage should only change 0.25 - 0.50% per day at most.
Maybe I am missing something.
The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
The Active Cases and Resolved Cases have intersected. The Recovered Cases will
be the next line to cross with the Active Case line. It will likely take another
week or two, but it may surprise us and hustle up there earlier. (or later, LOL)
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
Numbers still remain very high both on the domestic and international scenes.
Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
For your review...
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Let's see...
We're back up around record levels here.
It's pretty clear the New Case declarations are a lot heavier than they were a
few weeks back. Still,... the important thing to watch is the level of Fatalities.
These charts are now not only seeing growth internationally, but domestically
as well.
. The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart
As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.
Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)
Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
The U. K. line there is quite similar to France's line over a month ago. These
nations that can't manage their data rationally are a menace. Smile..,
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?
Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
At long last, Sweden's New Cases seem to be flatening out. Hopefully that will
be reflected in their Fatalities.
Movers and Shakers...
I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.
Here we go...
Fatalities rose well over 1,000 for the day, coming in at 1,118. A few days ago
I had said I wasn't seen a clear direction, but yesterday I mentioned that I
was noticing more strength behind a rising count. Hopefully that will change
soon.
Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.005% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved<, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
Had a pretty good spurt moving us up over 64.0% in the area of resolved cases
globally. Nice...
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
For your review...
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Here is the data for four entities...
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.
Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
Yesterday saw our highest clean Fatality figures since around June 5th. Looking
forward to tomorrow, if it sees another 24.5% week over week, we'll be in the
area around 1,250. I wouldn't bet on that happening. We'll see.
Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.
Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
In the lasts 44 days, we have looked very good in this area. I'm not sure we've
had more than two clean count days over 1,000 in those 44 days, but now we've had
a couple, and the trend seems to be headed toward more of them.
New York, New Jersey, I'm sure you'll have a very hard time figuring out where
they botched things... /s We had a little mini-event just after New Jersey also.
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.
A few days ago I wrote, we just passed the half a percentage point of our populace's
infection rate. Now we're already above 0.60%. I need to remind here, that
this only means that percentage of the populace has come up positive at some point.
Over half of them no longer are at this time.
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
It's hard to belive there are that many nations with 1,000 cases.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.
And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
When I first started this study, I had only intended to run it a month or so.
After that I found that I like being able to look back, and I like the chart also.
this does give us a full view of the Cases, but I do want to urge folks not to
buy off on these numbers 100.0% Look around. Read articles out there on the
Case Declarations. These numbers may be better for comparison with earlier
reports than for knowing the exact number of COVID-19 cases at any given time.
There are some problems with reporting. Still, I'd rather have numbers here we
can discuss and study in relation to various reports.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.
There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.
These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.
We slipped to 24th place the day before yesterday, but we came right back up to
23rd. We had been there for a while. We're back.
Section: 10
Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers
Listed in the order of current utilization...
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, Nations219,
and the CDC Provisional Counts53
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
Very ugly day for us. Hopefully this peaks soon and drops back down again. Thank you again for providing both the information and the commentary on it. It’s important that we be willing to face the reality of the situation without overreacting or pretending it doesn’t exist and that starts with looking at the best available information with all the context we can get.
Mostly agreed. The fatalities are a real “bummer”....
I started tracking the number of new hospitalizations of COVID patients in Florida.
During the week Jul 1 thru 7 there were an average 276 new covid hospitalizations each day.
During the week Jul 8 thru 14 there were an average 368 new covid hospitalizations each day.
During the week Jul 15 thru 21 there were an average 414 new covid hospitalizations each day.
Jul 15 = 491
Jul 16 = 366
Jul 17 = 441
Jul 18 = 339
Jul 19 = 292
Jul 20 = 517
Jul 21 = 463
We have had record numbers of new COVID cases in Florida for over four weeks.
We can conclude there is an increase in new hospitalizations for COVID infected patients. How this increase in new hospitalizations plays out is yet to be seen.
Given the fact that Florida has 62,000 hospital beds, the number of new hospitalizations of covid patients seems manageable.
Death rates in Florida are starting to creep higher.
A) The tests are garbage.
B) Anybody who dies with corona is counted as a corona death, regardless of what it was that actually killed them.
C) As for the rates of dead who tested positive for corona and are counted as corona deaths? See A
This is the biggest scam ever pulled.
Besides the daily death toll from the virus, there is another statistic I would like to know, but have no idea how to find the data.
I would like to know how many Americans died in each of the 12 months for each year (from all causes) for the last 5 years. So then I could compare the months of 2020 to other years. For example, how many people died in January 2016 compared to how many died in January 2017 compared to 2018, etc. etc. I’m curious to see how much bigger the data is for 2020.
Do you know where this info is? Thanks.
Good place to start is CDC.GOV
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980
"Across the United States, there were 95 235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. In comparison, there were an estimated 122 300 (95% prediction interval, 116 800-127 000) excess deaths during the same period (Table). The deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 accounted for 78% of the excess all-cause deaths, leaving 22% unattributed to COVID-19. The proportion of excess deaths that were attributed to COVID-19 varied between states and increased over time (Table and Figure 1)."
www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm
"During March 11–May 2, 2020, a total of 32,107 deaths were reported to DOHMH; of these deaths, 24,172 (95% confidence interval = 22,980–25,364) were found to be in excess of the seasonal expected baseline. Included in the 24,172 deaths were 13,831 (57%) laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths and 5,048 (21%) probable COVID-19–associated deaths, leaving 5,293 (22%) excess deaths that were not identified as either laboratory-confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths (Figure)."
We got home late today, I checked the news - over 1200 Covid-19 fatalities reported today. Crap.
Distortion of “data”...plain and simple. Are you panicked as yet?
Distortion of “data”...plain and simple. Are you panicked as yet?
I think we’re in for a rough period. Daily new cases have plateaued for the past week, but haven’t yet gone down. They seem to correlate with daily deaths on a 14-17 day lag time pretty well. If that’s the case, we may see a continued rise in daily new deaths for the next couple weeks before we plateau. After that, hopefully a drop?
The good news I’m seeing is that there’s a lot of positive development happening on the vaccine front. Multiple candidates are now talking about having at least some doses available in 2020, assuming their phase 3 trials are successful.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.