Posted on 07/09/2020 4:34:33 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Goldman Sachs is warning that the presidential election could see delayed results, and is therefore recommending that clients hedge their market bets through December in anticipation of heightened volatility through November. “Given the several-week delay in finalizing the results of the 2000 presidential election ... the elevated volumes of mail-in ballots used in recent primary elections, and potential for increased mail in ballots this November, we see heightened risk that election-related volatility could extend beyond Election Day,” Kostin said in a note to clients Tuesday night.
Kostin said options market traders seem to believe the next president might not be announced on Nov. 3. Looking at that market, he noted that implied volatility around the election is “extremely high compared with prior cycles.” Some of this has to do with the ongoing impact of the coronavirus, of course, but the especially high level of implied volatility directly before and after the election suggests that traders believe the outcome could be uncertain.
Given this, Kostin told Goldman clients they should hedge their market exposure into December in order to stem any losses incurred from a nondefinitive election result. “Although the 20-Nov option expiration offers two additional weeks of cushion beyond 3-Nov, the potential for delayed results, a precedent for extended vote-counting, and a slightly inverted term structure lead us to prefer extending hedges to the 18-Dec quarterly expiration,” he said. “For context, it took 34 days for the winner to be decided in the 2000 contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore,” Kostin added.
Did Al Gore ever apologize for filing his frivolous election lawsuit?
Demonicrat-controlled states and cities will simply delay reporting election results if the Demonicrat votes are not a clear majority or they need more time to “find” additional votes.
The Demonicrats will do evil thing in their power to corrupt the election so that their candidate will win.
Why would Goldman tell their investors to hedge their bets on what at worst would be a 3 month market move?
Are they doing it to give the stock market a whack?
I guess there are a large number of short and medium short investors out there who will want to either pull some money out or use options strategies to protect themselves.
Because it makes almost no sense for a long term investor to do anything based on this.
You KNOW this is what’s going to happen...BET ON IT! It’ll take MONTHS to “count the votes”!
Nevermind some little “delay” in the election results, surely the economic super-geniuses at Goldman are aware that a much more devastating long-term impact on the markets will occur if/when the Democrats control all 3 branches of the federal government come January.
Why aren’t they warning investors about THAT?
Maybe because they don’t want to scare people away from the outcome which Goldman itself wants — and can help make happen?
Not going to happen. Election is not going to be close.
Does Ted Cruz’s wfe still work for them?
Why would Goldman Sachs even post opinions like this they didn’t know something from Soros for the Clintons or the Obama posse?
Goldman Sachs put out a report weeks ago saying that a Democratic sweep of the election would result in lower corporate profits and dividends and would be a negative indicator for risk assets.
They’re allowed to write about more than one thing.
So I’m going to agree with James Woods that Clinton’s new appearance means she is running. State-by-state electoral rules of who can be on the ballot and who can’t will be challenged by them to the nth degree...cries of sexism...also a black VP is assured...cries of BLM... to me this is why they are making he’s painting the chaos and lawlessness up until the election. Courts will not be able to handle everything thrown at them. And most will throw things out because they are leftists. I hope President Trump contingency planning includes this.
Because the scale of vote by mail already has meant that this happens, even in primaries, in key states like Arizona, Colorado and Georgia. If it’s a close race the vote counting could take time, but I don’t believe it will be a close race.
Because the scale of vote by mail already has meant that this happens, even in primaries, in key states like Arizona, Colorado and Georgia. If it’s a close race the vote counting could take time, but I don’t believe it will be a close race.
Short of closing the voting places... it won’t work... People will STILL go out and vote for Trump
Because the scale of vote by mail already has meant that this happens, even in primaries, in key states like Arizona, Colorado and Georgia. If it’s a close race the vote counting could take time, but I don’t believe it will be a close race.
...
Agreed, however this the hill the Left does on...they will refuse to certify in the Dem states where Soros’s Secretaries of state were installed...they will challenge and refuse and riot. This covid/BLM rioting was spring training for them, I am convinced. Their livelihoods and paths to $billions are being cut off.. that is why they fight proxy...
Good. If all of the votes are counted accurately, Trump will win. The worst thing that can happen is for there to be rampant mail-in vote fraud (there will be) that is not detected until months after Biden is declared the winner.
While other elections have been important, it is a matter of our nation’s life or death as to Trump being elected. It seems as if the only alternative if Trump loses would be to “split the blanket” and let the leftists/communists go their own way and start over with a constitutional system. The upper northeast, left coast, and a few other places would be lost. It would also mean a large number of people displaced as a result.
this the hill the left does on, indeed
What would the Red states do without the massive cash inflows paid by the Blue states though? The federal system is a massive subsidy to rump states that would remain in your system. It would be like when Slovakia insisted on a split and then realized that the Czech Republic was where all the money was.
That will happen.
Guess we just continue, hat in hand, telling the federal government “Please Daddy, give us a few more dollars. What rights do you want to take away from us this month?”
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