Clinton did not win because of the alleged “Sister Souljah” moment. He won because Ross Perot took 18% of the vote as an Independent.
Since Perot espoused policies far more Conservative than Liberal almost that entire 18% he received would have gone to Bush.
Clinton won because Read My Lips was a terrible POTUS. Perot only got votes because Read My Lips was a terrible POTUS.
Because GHWB sucked.
Almost all of the analysis I saw concluded Clinton would have won with or without Perot.
A favorite topic of mine we election nerds have discussed before. It would have been a closer race but I think Clinton still would have won narrowly.
Many Perot people would not have voted at all (two NAFTA candidates) and Clinton would have received an appreciable portion of those that did vote. My late grandaunt worked the phones for Perot, she was a democrat who wouldn’t have voted Bush to save her life. Recall Clinton did not run as a flaming lib.
In 1996 I think though that Dole would have gotten the large majority of the Perot vote, resulting in.....a close race that I think Clinton also would have eked out. PA would have been the key state for a narrow Dole EC win.
Sister Souljah gave Clinton the ‘sitting on the fence’ vote...
Read this article which destroys the “Perot gave us Clinton myth”:
“The Man Who Supposedly Cost George H. W. Bush the Presidency”
http://www.pollingreport.com/hibbitts1202.htm