Posted on 06/30/2020 12:07:50 PM PDT by Heartlander
With the waning of the mass protests and riots, lauded by the press and politicians, the media were bound to turn their attention back to the coronavirus. One minute they are praising the protesters, the next they’re warning of the dangers of attending a Trump rally.
Nevertheless, cases did rise after lockdowns eased. A rise in cases sounds bad; at least, the press is doing its level worst to make it sound bad, and to frighten governors of states such as Texas and Florida, who have been saner than average.
But why should this panic us? A case (manifest illness needing or having official treatment) or an infection (just catching the bug, and no treatment needed or sought), are not as bad as a death from the bug. And there is no “spike” or “surge” in deaths.
Here is a picture of the CDC’s official weekly COVID-19 deaths, current as of 26 June (the latest numbers available):
It’s important to distinguish between the official CDC deaths and media-reported deaths, which have been consistently higher by about 10% (see the Atlantic’s COVID-19 Tracking Project). As of June 26, the CDC ascribed 109,188 deaths to coronavirus, while the media reported 118,031, almost 9,000 higher.
The crisis, at least with respect to deaths, appears to be over.
The CDC’s numbers are also likely too high, with some deaths with coronavirus being labeled of, or caused by, coronavirus. Nobody knows the extent of this overstatement, which might take years to sort out.
What we can do instead is look at the all-cause death reports. These are the weekly counts of deaths from any cause, normalized by population, from 2009 until late June (the CDC has two official sources, which have minor differences; both are plotted here).
The spike caused by coronvirus and seasonal flu are obvious, but then so is the drop off in deaths at the end. The drop off is not as dramatic as it seems, because it takes, according to the CDC, up to eight weeks to gather all reports, though after about two weeks the counts are usually more-or-less complete. The last three weeks are indicated with black dots.
Since this graph is hard to read, here is a blow up, showing the actual counts (not per capita):
The solid line are the all-cause deaths, whereas the dashed line are the same subtracting official COVID deaths. Again, these numbers are subject to revision. But it’s clear, even with delays in reporting, that the count of deaths have dropped to usual seasonal levels.
The crisis, at least with respect to deaths, appears to be over. True, deaths might surge again at some future date, but that’s a trivial logical truth. Deaths might also drop if people start eating better, and that’s another logical truth.
If deaths are dropping, how are “cases” rising? The coronavirus is probably still spreading somewhat. But most “new” cases are revealed because of testing. When people were locked down, many avoided going to the doctor and hospital for non-COVID ailments. After the lockdowns eased, they returned to have their bunions checked, were given routine covoronavirus tests, and were found either to have an active or past infection. If positive (active or past), they were officially recorded. Hence the “surge” and “spike.”
The media, incidentally, is nowhere close to distinguishing between new and old cases and infections. They report all tests as if they are new and serious.
Testing is also ramping up by official policy. For instance, the media trumpeted that Oklahoma recorded its “highest single-day increase” in cases. But they forgot to report that the state advertised free testing for that day, which led to higher than normal testing rates.
The media, incidentally, is nowhere close to distinguishing between new and old cases and infections. They report all tests as if they are new and serious.
The U.S. is now testing about half a million people every day.
You can’t find what you don’t test for. Even using the media’s worst-case-scenario numbers, by June 27 there were 2,498,822 reported positive tests and 119,156 deaths. That’s a death rate of 4.7%. There is no way the virus is killing 4.7% of the people it infects.
What’s happening is that most infections and cases aren’t being measured. This is not in the least unusual. Most who have the bug never have treatment, and many don’t even know they have been infected.
One study by Penn State estimated about 9 million Americans had an infection by March. The CDC says the actual number of cases is at least ten times higher than reported.
We can picture this using more careful estimates of infection and case rates collected by planned surveys of testing (rather than just looking at hospital reports; details are here). The estimated true rates give an idea of the true number of infected and true cases, defined as infections needing, but not necessarily receiving, official treatment.
The tiny solid line at the bottom are the reported number of cases, which is now about 2.5 million (as noted above). The true number of cases is, however, anywhere from 10 to 40 million. The true number of infections is 45 to 80 million.
Increased testing is revealing some of these previously unmeasured infections and cases.
These numbers suggest we are inching closer to herd immunity, the point at which spreading the disease to new people becomes much harder. The continued fall in both official COVID-19 and all-cause deaths, also suggest we should be less worried, not more.
Surely the press and government officials are bright enough to grasp these same statistics. So, why do they insist that the crisis is growing worse? I’ll let you answer that for yourself.
William M. Briggs is a senior contributor to The Stream, author of Uncertainty, blogger at wmbriggs.com, philosopher and itinerant scientist. He earned his Ph.D. from Cornell University in statistics. He studies the philosophy of science, the use and misuses of uncertainty, the corruption of science, and the uselessness of most predictions.
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Deaths are plummeting. We will always have this virus with us, just like the flu. But it’s mass murder days are gone.
Then Trump had better do a much better job of getting that point out there, because right now the country is in full panic mode.
He needs to get Pence out there talking every day about how the curve has been flattened, deaths are declining and it’s time to get back to normal.
The media are participating in a crime against humanity by assisting in this fraud.
First one back to Nuremberg turn on the lights.
We won’t but the MSM needs to keep this hoax pandemic alive so that Dem’s have a reason to shut everything down and blame Trump.
Oregon’s Kate Brown panicked when she saw the state’s economy recovering.
“Then Trump had better do a much better job of getting that point out there, because right now the country is in full panic mode.”
I don’t know. Yesterday a young guy at the butcher shop, wearing a cowboy-style bandanna, laughed and said that everybody he knew regarded the whole thing as a scam.
This!
Our Democrat county officials just closed down all the bars and put insane new mask rules on restaurants.
All over a “case spike” of 96 new cases on Sunday.
Since the pandemic began we’ve had around 200 COVID deaths in total here. Around half of those in nursing homes. With a total county population of 1.2 million.
Weekend county numbers appear to be 4 new hospitalizations and ZERO deaths (which they worked very hard to try and keep from the public).
This is all about stopping the recovery and getting rid of Trump, not health.
Tell that to the dumble governors and karens...
They don’t seem to get it.
Only look at new daily deaths. (And pray that you’re not among them)
That's a good one. I'm stealing it. I'll try to remember to give you credit for it but I make no promises.
More tests = More cases.
You should not even care about national numbers.
The reason is that you should be concerned if you are compromised—you want to know there is room in the ICU for you.
So, keep an eye on your local hospitalization load and, if they publish it, your ICU capacity and population.
90% will not get sick, or at least not sick enough to get hospitalized. Of the 10% that become really sick, not many end up in an ICU. And even fewer of them die.
The numbers are clearly on your side.
If you are elderly, obese, diabetic or otherwise immunio-compromised do the mask-distance-washing routine. And stay away from crowds.
For everyone else, if you cannot social distance and you will be around people you do not know, a mask is a good idea.
Your mileage will vary based on where you are at the moment.
This is why “national” decrees are practically useless. Pay attention to what is happening around “you” at the moment.
everyone infected with the corona virus will die.
everyone not infected with the corona virus will die.
there you have it. shut it all down.
we are doomed.
I look at regional hospitalizations, ICU utilization, and deaths. Cases doesn’t mean a whole lot in a vacuum, but hospitalizations rising does. There are some hotspots right now where hospitalizations are rising way too fast and the death counts that had been declining are leveling off (7-day moving average about 600 deaths per day). That’s a lot better than the worst of it at 2,250 deaths per day, but 600 lives lost a day is still terrible.
Sweden’s model of social distancing without shutdowns works, but we have to actually adhere to it for it to be effective, and we have to get a lot better about protecting the vulnerable. 600 deaths a day is 18,000 deaths a month. That would mean ~75,000 new deaths by election day. We can do better and we must.
He needs to get Pence out there talking every day about how the curve has been flattened, deaths are declining and it’s time to get back to normal.
*******
The problem is that Pence and his Republican governor friends have been a part of the fear problem. This has caused them to ignore contrary evidence and cave into the mask culture.
Yup. The goal has to be to keep the health care system from being overrun and exceeding capacity. No other goal is actually attainable.
If we did not exceed the admittedly enhanced capacity of New York City in the darkest days of this we’re unlikely to do that elsewhere.
“This is all about stopping the recovery and getting rid of Trump, not health.”
Maybe it’s time to demonstrate.
“Hospitalization figures = fairly important
ICU Admissions figures = quite important
Death figures = very important
Any other figures = couldn’t care less”
And the only figure I’ve heard among the media is positive tests. Even when they tell the truth they’re lying.
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