Their methodology caused them to correctly predict the result in 2016, but that doesn’t mean the methodology actually is correct. We would need a large sample size, i.e. a bunch of elections, to conclude that it works. So far we have one election.
I’m convinced that unlike 1968 when lawless mobs turned the tide against the dems and elected republicans, lawless mobs now will bring fear of more lawless mobs if we elect Trump. I believe Biden is actually gaining support because of the violence, hoping it will stop if we just let the democrats win the white house.
Their methodology caused them to correctly predict the result in 2016, but that doesn’t mean the methodology actually is correct. We would need a large sample size, i.e. a bunch of elections, to conclude that it works. So far we have one election.
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Unfortunately you are correct. They predicted a large percentage win for Trump in the popular vote in 2016. They missed that one by a mile.
My opinion: accurately poll Likely Voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, Arizona and maybe a couple of other swing states and you will know in advance who is going to win the election.