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NYT/Siena Polls: Trump Losing Ground with White Voters in Swing States, Not Gaining with Minorities
Breitbart ^ | 27 Jun 2020 | John Binder

Posted on 06/28/2020 12:19:16 AM PDT by Zhang Fei

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To: Zhang Fei

Election night is going to be a fun night!


101 posted on 06/28/2020 6:03:54 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: nathanbedford

The polls that said Trump couldn’t win were wrong.


102 posted on 06/28/2020 6:05:41 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: fortheDeclaration

[Election night is going to be a fun night!]


It always is. At the beginning of every election cycle, I tell myself it’s no big deal. But election night is always a white-knuckle occasion.


103 posted on 06/28/2020 6:15:16 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei

I don’t think this election is going to be white knuckle, but a big Red night.


104 posted on 06/29/2020 6:08:09 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: Political Junkie Too; Greetings_Puny_Humans
Latest Harris Poll Shows Sharp Narrowing of Biden Lead from 10 to Only 4 points

200 replies and counting, damn few of them questioning the validity of this poll. Does that tell us something about human nature?


105 posted on 06/29/2020 9:34:00 AM PDT by nathanbedford (attack, repeat, attack! Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford
damn few of them questioning the validity of this poll. Does that tell us something about human nature?

No, it tells us that this is "old news" and Breitbart ginning up a story three days late.

The poll came out on June 24. See my posts about it here.

-PJ

106 posted on 06/29/2020 9:44:31 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too (Freedom of the press is the People's right to publish, not CNN's right to the 1st question.)
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To: Gnome1949

So, anarchy is gaining support among the populace?

This is pure propaganda.

Why does the media keep talking about Trump’s declining popularity? It is just wishful thinking.

Biden, in obvious, advanced dementia, and being kept in the basement because he babbles incoherently, is really picking up steam as a presidential candidate?

I have never seen gaslighting of the public to this extent.
//
///

Agreed. IF POTUS needs to get some base back it’s because he’s NOT coming down harder on the left.

I don’t buy any of this bullshit


107 posted on 06/29/2020 8:19:39 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: nonsporting

The American voters may be upset with Trump because he has not cracked down harder on fake news and racist BLM rioters.

/
/

YES! IF there upset voter THIS is where the anger comes from ...frustration these idiots are being shot in the street. The MSM gets it all wrong all of the time.


108 posted on 06/29/2020 8:21:07 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: nathanbedford

they were NOT correct stop posting bullshit.

They all had HRC winning by double digits throughout the summer. ALL battleground polls had her winning, including Wisonsin and PA, so much so that she didn’t even CAMPAIGN there for months.

I can post links to POLLS and THREADS made about those POLLS from summer of 2016.

Now you go suck YOUR thumb.

The gas lighting never ends even with the trolls here on FR.


109 posted on 06/29/2020 8:24:25 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Jim Noble

Of course the polls were right in 2016.
.
.,

ARE YOU KIDDING ME??

LOLOLOL

They were all wrong from the primaries to the Presidential election.


110 posted on 06/29/2020 8:28:58 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: snarkytart

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-holds-clear-advantage-in-new-battleground-polls/2016/10/18/2885e3a0-94a6-11e6-bc79-af1cd3d2984b_story.html

that is ONE ..there are tons of articles just like this from 2016


111 posted on 06/29/2020 8:31:55 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: snarkytart
What are you so afraid of?

I will tell you what I am afraid of, I am afraid of tyrants like you who would shut down opposing points of view as though you were running Twitter or Facebook because you assume, in your arrogance, that your fellow conservatives are too stupid to deal intelligently with anything that offends or frightens you.

No gas lighting here, only a desire to recognize and deal with reality. You may disagree about the nature of the "reality" but the process of defining it is the point of a forum. Otherwise welcome to Pravda.

The first resort of those who are fearful or those who are demagogic is to resort to the ad hominem because that, like charges of racism, ends debate and avoids unpleasant prospects. The result though is to leave a political party in an election year flat, flaccid, vulnerable. Much better to be running scared than running complacent-I think you pointed that out yourself about Hillary's campaign.

Take a look at Nate Silver's article


112 posted on 06/29/2020 9:11:56 PM PDT by nathanbedford (attack, repeat, attack! Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3413787/posts


113 posted on 06/29/2020 10:26:53 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: nathanbedford
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 Mar 23 Exclusive @FiveThirtyEight projection on what the Electoral College would look like if women refuse to vote Trump. 2016
114 posted on 06/29/2020 10:27:43 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: nathanbedford

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-holds-clear-advantage-in-new-battleground-polls/2016/10/18/2885e3a0-94a6-11e6-bc79-af1cd3d2984b_story.html


115 posted on 06/29/2020 10:28:20 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: nathanbedford

THere are a THOUSAND of those articles siting polls in 2016 ...the polls were NOT correct in 2016 and neither was Nate Silver, your hero.


116 posted on 06/29/2020 10:29:31 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: snarkytart
The SurveyMonkey poll was conducted online


117 posted on 06/30/2020 4:44:22 AM PDT by nathanbedford (attack, repeat, attack! Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/reuters-ipsos-states-of-the-nation-clinton-leads-in-florida-idUSKCN11W242

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/09/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-polls/index.html

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/hillary-clinton-widens-wisconsin-lead-over-donald-trump-in-latest-marquette-poll/article_aef990a2-ade4-56f4-b7fe-e967d66aea24.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-clinton-ahead-north-carolina-virtual-tie-ohio-n665981

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/clinton-texas-trump/499097/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Now what about sucking a thumb? These are just a few polls and articles. Same shit four years later.

But nice try on attempting to equate off year congressional elections where historically the party in power at the WH usually loses seats (Obama lost 63 first time) to a Presidential election with your Nate Silver link.

You miserable negative people can’t stand yourselves can you? Break neck speed to come here and post the Harris poll to try and shit all over it because it’s not depressing enough or because it was somewhat positive so people didn’t tear it apart. And to just lie or be deluded about the polls in 2016 is just mind boggling. Sure some national polls had Clinton leading within the MOE the day of election but for months leading up to the election it was all about how MADAM PRESIDENT was far ahead.


118 posted on 06/30/2020 5:04:35 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Zhang Fei

Guess it’s time to talk about the spike in cases but not deaths.


119 posted on 06/30/2020 5:10:21 AM PDT by petitfour (APPEAL TO HEAVEN)
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To: nathanbedford
You may find this an interesting read about Reuters' 2016 polls. I don't know if you recall this at the time, but it's been on my mind ever since it happened.

One more article to read: July 29, 2016: The year of 'Neither': Why Reuters/Ipsos is tweaking its U.S. presidential poll.

The tl;dr version is this:

When Trump began surging in the polls and overtook Clinton, Reuters reviewed its polling methodology. They decided that the option "neither/other" was hurting Trump before the conventions but hurting Clinton more after the conventions. By removing the option of choosing "neither" in their post-convention polls, Clinton surged back on top in Reuters polling.

Reuters justified this by saying that their polls were now back in line with all the other polling. This might have been a confirmation bias on their part, where Reuters distrusted the notion that they were uncovering something unique about the 2016 election, and felt the need to match the other polls that were showing Clinton ahead.

It's worth the few minutes to review.

-PJ

120 posted on 07/01/2020 2:27:16 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (Freedom of the press is the People's right to publish, not CNN's right to the 1st question.)
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