“We’re literally 1 in a million or billion or more.”
Perhaps
— if we are one in a billion, there would be around 300-400 other civilizations in the Milky Way.
— if we are one in a million, there would be around 300,000- 400,000 civilizations in the galaxy.
When you are dealing with 300 billion plus stars, it’s hard to know where to start looking!
But look we will and find we shall!
Time. No one knows how long a technological civilization lasts. The 300 - 400,000 civilizations may have happened 100 million years ago or a 100 million years in the future.
Technology: An earth type planet could get stuck at the dinosaur stage forever. Or even if intelligent beings evolve they could get stuck at the Roman Empire technology level for ever. No guarantee that they will ever discover radio or space travel.
When the SETI program was being discussed years ago, the expectation was where ever we aimed our equipment we’d find life. Carl Sagan felt the universe would be filled with voices and chatter... just waiting for us to join the conversation.
Then there was nothing. And more nothing... and it became kinda scary.