Posted on 06/23/2020 7:26:22 AM PDT by wise_caucasian
Does anyone really believe data, polls etc. that’s being put out there now? Nothings trustworthy that’s being shoveled out there anymore.
-PJ
Social desirability bias . . . interesting term. I’m making myself speak out more when I see the cancel culture at work. I’m retired, so they can’t fire me. We live in a place where there aren’t many conservatives, so I’m used to being isolated. I have more to lose if this swings into totalitarianism than I do by speaking out and perhaps helping wake up someone local - just a little. It is difficult to step up to ridicule but they aren’t shooting most of us - at least not yet.
As do I, absolutely.
Still, my point is that you cannot compare a June poll 5 months before the election to one 2 days before the election.
Here's what Rush Limbaugh said about this very issue TODAY:
“Yes, Biden is leading Trump by 10 points in a state that Trump cannot afford to lose. That’s cause for concern. No electoral map makes sense for Trump if he loses Florida. And yes, among likely voters, which is a key data point, if the election were held today, their votes go to Biden by an 11-point margin.”
But the election is not today, and none of this — look. One thing I’m consistent about, when you go back, if we wanted to document them for you, I have literally become worn out by media people that are totally poll-driven and rely almost exclusively, entirely on polls to form their thinking about who’s popular, who isn’t, what’s gonna win, who’s gonna win, who isn’t.
We had a little poll last week showing Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by 11 points, the same time, same poll that shows Biden ahead of Trump by 11 points now. And, of course, we know what happened. Hillary Clinton didn’t win by 11 points, she didn’t win, period. But more than that, nobody’s gonna remember this poll. Here we have a poll taken, what, June 23rd or even if it was last week. We’re not close enough to the election yet where these polls matter because there are still events that are going to shape the election that haven’t happened yet. There’s no question about that.
So the polling data that’s taken now and reported has a different purpose than trying to predict the winner. Oh, they might tell you that’s what they’re trying to do, but that’s not what these polls are about now. I don’t get worked up about them. Even if they show my particular candidate in a good light, unless I think the election is a slam dunk anyway this far out. And my thinking right now is that Trump wins this and wins this big.
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