China intends to have a short bloody war with India. Given its superiority in aircraft, missiles, armaments, and troops it intends to fight India, inflict heavy casualties and humiliate it. The reason is that China fully intends to take control of Taiwan and the consensus among its leadership is that it must be done by force. China knows history. Prior to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Russia and Japan fought some intense battles in Manchuria. Japan got mauled and the Japanese high command did not want to fight Russia again. When Hitler invaded Russia, the Japanese refused to open a second front against Russia in the Pacific. Eventually Russia was able to send divisions from Siberia which were critical in turning back the Nazi onslaught before Moscow late in 1941.Japan was intimidated and their refusal to attack Russia changed the outcome of the war.
China means to similarly intimidate India. They do not want an attack from India when they invade Taiwan.
[China means to similarly intimidate India. They do not want an attack from India when they invade Taiwan.]
An invasion across 100 miles of open water is a much more risky endeavor than merely crossing a border. An attack on India might be considered a narrowly-focused dress rehearsal designed to determine whether China can even do a land war successfully against a poorly-armed opponent like India. Don’t get me wrong - India has a bunch of flashy Russian weaponry. But the true test of readiness comes down to the unglamorous nitty gritty details, including how much ammo and parts it has in inventory, and whether it can resupply the troops at the front without big gaps in which the enemy can overwhelm them. Before Xi embarks on a far more risky venture against Taiwan that might be opposed by the full might of the American arsenal, he needs to know his military machine can do what he requires of it. That might mean a much bigger advance into India than anybody is expecting.