Posted on 06/16/2020 6:45:40 PM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
I disagree. Joe is up at least 15 in Michigan. I don’t think he even needs to go.
Ya think?
No Sheeit!
““I know Joe Biden gets it. I know he’ll be here.””
i’m sure he’ll be there ... but only if they can make him feel at home by having a suitable basement prepared for him that has am ample supply of butterscotch pudding and a 3rd rate video setup that barely works ...
Black turnout is obviously very important to any democrat. Since Biden is going to pick a black VP candidate, that may work wonders in getting blacks to the polls. I also don't believe blacks support Trump in the numbers the polls suggest. In 2018, republican support by blacks were all the rage and it never materialized at the polls and it won't happen in 2020, either. Supporting the democrat is such a cultural touchstone in the black community, I don't see a change.
I recall in the aftermath of the 2016 election, the only fraudulent vote that got any press was for Trump. It was by a lady in Iowa who voted for Trump twice on election day. It made the front page of the Washington Post. All I could do was shake my head at the corrupt media.
Yup.
4 hits the nail on the head. Fake polls to keep dems energized are realy going to make it difficult to replace him.
Probably don’t want the “peaceful” wing of the democrat party, ANTIFA, coming to their homes.
Ruh-roh...the polls designed to suppress conservative voters also give Dem voters false sense of security...whodathunkit?
The issue is turnout.
There is no evidence that _any_ VP candidate has had a significant impact on _turnout_.
While political insiders get all excited by VP picks, and the party base may get interested in the topic, the voters that are undecided on whether to turn out or not are those _least_ interested in politics.
In a forum like this it is hard to imagine these folks—it is even harder to understand what motivates them.
What is most important is that pollsters know as little as we do about it.
To the extent that these low commitment voters make decisions whether or not to vote, it is usually at the very last minute, long after the VP selection has been made.
Early voting has muddied the waters even further.
Talking heads may sound persuasive, but at the end of the day their ignorance on what makes low commitment voters vote is complete—there is no good data and lots of wild speculation.
We do know when Obama was on the ticket, there was historic black turnout and it went back to normal levels in 2016. So, it is possible that having a black VP candidate on the ticket may boost black turnout - it can't hurt - we do know that. We won't know until election night.
Also assume that the news media will lionize the VP candidate and swoon with ecstasy and will do all they can to boost black turnout.
Democrats worry that polls showing Biden's lead growing may outpace their ability to back it up after voting has ended.
They're going to wind up in 110% turnout territory if the polls keep going like this.
-PJ
I have no idea whether the polls are accurate or not, but they want people to turn out and vote. Saying the race is close is the best way to do that.
My read on the black turnout issue is that the Obama turnout was a fluke that will not be repeated, not even close.
He was the first black major party presidential candidate.
There is nothing the Democrats can do that can remotely compare—they can push propaganda until the cows come home, but there is only one first.
Think of it as marginal utility for presidential candidates.
The first million bucks is a really big deal. The second million bucks, nice but not in the same ball-park for increased utility.
I think that is well thought out. Thanks for your insight.
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