COVID-19 Update - 06/14/2020

My own workup | 06/14/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 88

As of 06/13/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information²
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Yesterday's Summary in a Nutshell

New Cases in the United States came in at 25,197 yesterday. That was down 2,005
cases from the day before when we had 27,202. I'm going to address this again
here. Look down to the next title in this section. I have some things to
mention again.

Fatalities dropped to 696 in the United States. That was down 10 from the day
before.

Global Cases were off by 11,332 cases to come in at 131,491. This was another
single day record for a Saturday.

Is there a Second Wave Building? Is the CDC Acting in Good Faith?

Yesterday was the first day I could actually agree that the numbers didn't
look gamed, and that they had risen.

Do I fully trust them? After them talking up the numbers before they went
up, and then them testing 146% of the usual number to get higher numbers,
not really. There are always ways to game the system, and if we think
of the shenanigans they use during elections and to destroy Trump, I can't
honestly say I'm totally on board their story line either.

Criminals in the streets, a-okay. Decent law abiding citizens leaving home
after months, oh now, can't have that. Something is rotten in Denmark folks.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

While the numbers came down yesterday, they are still in a range higher than
they have been. If we take them as good honest numbers, there is some cause
for concern.

The fact is, we have been locked up for three months now. Big numbers or not,
life goes on. We cannot remain in our homes for the rest of our lives.

OPEN UP!

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Our Active Cases are still lower than they were just before the end of May.
The number of Active Case rose by 12,331 cases yesterday. The Resolved
Cases had fallen off from the previous day. That made room for this growth.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been dropping recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

Our slice of the Global COVID-19 pie continues to get smaller. Each day
we reduce the size of our slice of the global pie, by a fraction of a
percentage. Is seems inconsequential each day, and it actually is, but
when you look back at here we have been, this slow steady decline is really
a big deal.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

The active cases fell for four out of five days a while back. That dropped our
number by a fair amount. We've still not grown back to the previous high
and we seem to be growing by lesser amounts.

Numbers have gone up, and it's showing in the Chart. Hopefully it will go back
down, but I think the rioters and protesters have worked their magic. Now
the law abiding citizens are expected to pay the price. Is anyone going to
buy into that?

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that.

The postives percentage rose back over 5.0% yesterday. We were solidly under
5.0% most of the time recently. This is a one day spike. We'll have to see
if it continues.

Here is a chart to reveal visually what the decline has looked like.

On the right there, you can see the lines weaving lowerm with a new spike
upward. Will that continue?

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visully.

The lines were coming together, but now I'm wondering if the Riots, looting
and other criminality is showing up in the numbers and charts.

This will be played off as simply a second wave, but > IMO < it's just part
of the massive crime wave, if that is indeed what it represents.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

Yesterday's New Cases were a record for the day. It was a very high day for
the reporting of New Cases. Off by 11,378, it's tough to play
it off as a big deal, realizing it's actually a relief to have it
down to that level these days. It was only a record day by a very slim
margin too.

Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

For your review...

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

This indicator (that middle number) reveals how the Global Scene is doing
outside of China and the United States. There was some relief on the
Saturday reports.

Our blue indicators here look very good. We are being compared there to the
full global scene, but if you just look at the blue indicators, we are
remaining in a low range considering the massive amount of testing we are
implementing right now.

The last two days we've seen an uptic. I have not idea what comes next, but
I'm afraid the criminalily impact on COVID-19 isn't going to be good.

The U. S. is still looking good on the seven day averaging charts. This may
wind up being a short blip on the COVID-19 radar.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

That single day line is active, up and down.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

The United Kingdom has soared recently. While it's number of cases has
caught up with Spain, when you look at Cases and Fatalities per million
it looks better. That Deaths per million area doesn't look good, but it's
not a blowout.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden still remains a hot topic, and it's tragectory IS NOT looking good
on that Chart. In it's own group, it's not good at all. If you compare it
to some European Nations, it looks no worse.

Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

Brazil had the highest number of Fatalities yesterday, but we had the highest
number of New Cases.

South America came to the game late, but Brazil is certainly coming up with
big numbers now.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.

I also like seeing those trajectories intersect, and what that represents.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.002% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

The percentage of Resolved Active Cases has slipped a bit at times, but look
at it now compared to a month ago. The numbers are looking better.
Recoveries are having a big impact, mitigating the growth that we could see
without them.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

For your review...!

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

Anyone paying attention is already aware of the issues surrounding these
numbers. I'm not going to touch base on them every day.

Here is the chart to go along with those figures.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Our number of Fatalities fell again. The 696 Fatalities was down by 100 from
the privious day.

Here are two charts to go with the above data.

Fatalities are dropping off nicely here, but on the Global scene it seems
as if the numbers have rebounded up. Hope that changes soon.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

We have broken the 1.00% barrier. That percentage can be deceiving though.
Fractions of a percent off a very large number, can still result in a large
number. We are trending down in numbers. That is good.

Look at those sub 1.0% growth rates there. Very very nice... Now, will they
hold with the New Cases starting to rise? Hope so.

It's pretty easy to spot the weekly cycles isn't it..

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

We slipped more yesterday. Not liking that.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

It's hard to belive there are that many nations with massive numbers.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

The bright side, if there is any, is that this number was almost the same as
the number the previous Saturday. Globally we had been growing each week
by a considerable amount. Is that model breaking up now. Sure would love to
see that.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Look at that. We have come down from 43%, and now reside at 29%.

Progress... (as long as they aren't gaming the system...)

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁴,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

[kickstart]

I agree with your summary. You can’t trust the media.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

The French way of winning the war against covid.

Just reduce the number of cases——

France marks ‘first victory against virus’ says President Macron
6/14/2020, 4:05:54 PM · by Eleutheria5 · 10 replies
Arutz Sheva ^ | 14/6/20
“The fight against the epidemic is not finished,” French President Emmanuel Macron said today in an address to the nation, “but I am happy about this first victory against the virus.” As reported in The Guardian, all of mainland France including Paris will be designated a “green zone” as of tomorrow. As such, cafes and restaurants will be permitted to open as normal; family visits will be permitted at retirement homes; and schools (except high schools) will reopen fully...

[Starboard]

Wow! An impressive analytic tour de force.

Thanks for all your hard work to inform the rest of us.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Here is an update on an earlier posting—

If anything, it appears Worldometer is underreporting the number of deaths vis a vis the CDC.

As we all know, the CDC Provisional Numbers have a time lag as they wait until the death certificates are processed.
In order to adjust for the time lag, I looked at the cumulative deaths as of April 25, 2020 as reported by Worldometer and CDC.

On April 25th Worldometer reported 54,265 deaths.

On May 21st CDC reported 54,529 deaths as of April 25th.

On May 26th CDC reported 56,003 deaths as of April 25th

On Jun 1st CDC reported 57,471 deaths as of April 25th

On Jun 4th CDC reported 58,300 deaths as of April 25th

On Jun 11th CDC reported 58,811 deaths as of April 25th

So as of June 11th the CDC ‘official’ death count as of April 25, 2020 is 7.7% greater than the WOM death count for the same day.

This difference could mean a couple of things:
1. The CDC is finding more covid deaths from the certificates than were initially reported by the health departments.
2. Worldometer’s data for April 25th was not correct and Worldometer has their own ways of adjusting past data.
3. CDC “Official” covid deaths will end up 7.7% or more than what Worldometer is currently posting.

Until the covid pandemic slows down to a point where there are less than 100 deaths per day and that death rate holds for a couple of months, we will not know which of these reasons for the differences exist.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Note: Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of May 26, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes)

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Below are the deaths per 1 million by state. The states with the most deaths are Democrat run. Now we need to get some dollar figures on the damage caused by arson and looting in those states. Something tells me that the bad management in these states causing high covid death rates and high property losses from looting and arson are correlated.

Nothing like condoning riots, looting, and arson to take the news off bad covid management practices.

New York 1,587
New Jersey 1,419
Connecticut 1,167
Massachusetts 1,094
Rhode Island 786
District Of Columbia 724
Louisiana 646
Michigan 602
Illinois 496
Pennsylvania 490
Maryland 484
Delaware 430

[2aProtectsTheRest]

I think in a lot of cases, counties just aren’t that great at collecting the information quickly and passing it along to the state and CDC. I’ve seen some anecdotal reports from people that had direct knowledge of COVID-19 fatalities (family, friend, etc.) who witnessed the stats from their county fail to reflect the deaths for weeks. Each county will have its own process for collecting that data and passing it along, but that could take a lot of time in some cases.

In other words, if Bob dies of COVID-19 on April 25th, it may take a few days for a report to be generated on the cause of death. Further, that report may have additional screening/editing before it gets approved for release by the hospital. The hospital then processes the approved report to hand it off to the county. The county receives it and sits on it for a couple weeks. They finally get around to it and add that data in to stats they’re putting together for the state. That reporting has its own approval process that takes time. Then it goes to the state and they sit on it. By the time it gets to the CDC, Bob’s been dead for a month, along with everyone else who died on April 25th. It isn’t that they changed anything; the CDC just didn’t hear about Bob or anyone else who died on that day until much later because of all the red tape between the examiner and the CDC.

It’s government; it’s slow and doesn’t work very well. Worse still: it’s local government.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Just to clarify.

The number of deaths reported on April 25th were cumulative deaths reported by Worldometer on that date. Not the number of people who died on that date.

Likewise, the CDC numbers reported as of April 25th are the cumulative deaths-—and that number keeps increasing as they process more death certificates from those who died prior to April 25th.

So as of today 117,853 cumulative deaths are being reported by Worldometer. Will the ‘official’ numbers from the CDC be 7.7% higher when they process all the death certificates from people who died before today?

[2aProtectsTheRest]

It’s difficult to judge from one data point, but if there’s been a consistent lag of around 7.7% from week-of reporting to finalized numbers, then I don’t see any reason that would suddenly change. Local governments don’t suddenly get better at their jobs.

[thesearethetimes...]

Thank you. Prayers for a one day uptick.

[amorphous]

June 14 Update:

After close to 72 hours above the trend line, the number of new cases dropped below to a dip. Let's see how long we can stay there. Our DFI (daily fatality index), as I like call it, hit a record low today of 0.28. The previous record was 0.33 set on 7 June.

•Blue line represents projected death totals.
•Yellow line is actual death totals based on WorldofMeters.info data.
•Purple line is actual case numbers offset by 14 days.
•Red line represents projected daily deaths.
•Black extension lines are trend lines.