COVID-19 Update - 05/27/2020

My own workup | 05/27/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 70

As of 05/26/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information²
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Yesterday's Summary in a Nutshell

On the Global scene there were 97,698 New Cases Declared yesterday. Yep, it
was a record for a Tuesday.

The New Cases in the United States came in at 19,049, 741 less than the day
before.

On the global scene, the Fatalities reported out at 4,348. That's a pretty
average day, but it's hard to figure an average simple review. It seems to
change levels daily. I mean general levels.

Our Fatalities came in at 767, still a very low number. It actually hit 774
about 17:32 PDST report, but was adjusted down to the number above.

The United States Hits a Mileston

The United States has now passed 100,000 reported deaths from COVID-19. I am
not confident in these numbers. Many others are also supsect of them. This is
the number being reported out there. I think we should acknowledge it, even if
we don't agree with it.

There are plenty of anecdotal reports on the forum that talk of gaming these
numbers. The only thing his, no one has better numbers that have been worked up
and reported out.

I urge folks to look at the Provisional Report put out by the CDC. It has
reviewed deaths to confirm them. I think their number is more reliable, even
if I don't care much for the way the CDC has seemed to function over the last
few years.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

Our New Case numbers continued to remain low at 19,049. I think of yesterday
as a day similar to a Monday this week. The numbers would be low on a Monday.
They are here. We'll need to see how things are later in the week. I do
like the numbers over the last few days, but I don't think they are truly
indicative of a new direction. I do think they may be in part.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Fatalities rose but we are still in a very low region.

Our Recoveries and Resolved Cases were a little higher than normal, but not
too remarkable.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been dropping recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

Our slice continues to get smaller. Very nice to see...

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

The single day has falling in behind the seven day line. Due to the low days
we are achieving a flattening out here. I don't know if that will continue.
The long weekend and low reporting was likely responsible for this chart's
flattenign out. We'll see.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. This following Data addresses that.

I went back as far as I could in my records. I plan on keeping a running
30 day display here, with the Chart starting on 04/21 & 04/23 ongoing.

You can see how the Declared Cases to Testing percentage has gone down over
time. Yesterday seemed to grow in percentage. We'll keep an eye on it.

Here is a chart to reveal visually what the decline has looked like.

Folks can determine for themselves just how New Cases are affected by the
Testing.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

Yesterday I saw the numbers above and that they had been falling day to day,
but they were will record days. So the volume had been very high, even though
things might look decent when compared to the day before. And then yesterday
the numbers shot back up. We have ten daily records over the last 11 days.
I'm referencing a new high for the day, like the worst Tuesday evern.

The volume is heavy.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Again, I don't believe there is anything unusual here today.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Well, a little better yesterday...

Well that middle number is back up again today. Here we go heading towards
another Thursday/Friday.

Look at the massive humbers the Global community has been hitting over the
last ten days or so.

Look at our blue field compared to the Global red field.

Our day was very decent, but Globally outside China, things are still hot.
It's not looking good. Check out the direction of those red lines above.
It's fitting that Excel chose red for them.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

If you look closely at that last one, it shows that just when things looked
ready to flatten out, new nations caught fire with COVID-19, and up went the
count of Cases again.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

The same comments fit for about each day here.

The chart of Cases, causes the perception that it is in conflict with the
second chart below it. Actually it isn't. It is depicting raw numbers
of New Cases. Down below the chart addresses per million numbers.

They appear to skew, but everything is accurate here.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden still remains a hot topic.

Movers and Shakers is a New Feature as of 05/22/2020.

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

Strange lower numbers skewed this report a bit, and that made it possible
for other nations to take an even better run at our numbers.

Normalcy should return tomorrow.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.003% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

On the right that Declared Cases resolution percentage continues to grow.

Look at the increase from 04/25 to this point. Nice...

We should be at 50% by the 28th to the 30th of May. The way it has been going,
we may actually hit 50% earlier than that. We'll see.

I first presented that prediction about a week ago. It seems I gaged it about
right.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger!

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this area of study.

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

I urge folks to review the CDC's Provisional numbers bellow. I am not touting
this count (100,572), but it's out there so I mention it. We have articles all
over the forum detailing the issues with these numbers, but we have to have
reference points.

With no numbers we'd be flying blind. It's really pretty simple. Well, to
most adults it is.

Here is the chart to go along with those figures.

Looks pretty ominous there doesn't it.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Our numbers of new Fatalities went up a bit yesterday. It was still a low
number, and I wish it would stay down there. I doubt it will.

Holiday reporting here. We shouldn't make much of this. The lower numbers for
a couple of days were nice, but that's a temporary situation.

Here are two charts to go with the above data.

These each seem to be taking a little bounce up, then down. We'll have tIto
watch this one closely.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

These number have been looking very nice. One day we'll be this low and
stay there or go even lower.

I don't think we can hold this. I like what I am seeing in the U. S.
Areas that have reopened haven't caused much to b concerned about. Let's
hope we can hold it together, even though we're certin to move up a little
after this long weekend.

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

These numbers are skewed by the longer low count days. About all we should be
celebrating is more time off for the clerical class. Smile...

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.

Right now in the Global scene, some of these nations are going exponential.
It's sad to see. Sadly, those folks can infect other nations too depening on
how things are handled. Other nations need to stay on top of things,
including our own.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Look at the last column on the right of each grouping, and you'll note that we
are now in our second week of new records for each eay. We did miss one day,
but since a week ago this last Saturday, we have had a record every day but one.

After nine days, we finally saw a day that wasn't a record, the day before
yesterday, but here we are again.

As long as those 1,000 plus case nations keep exploding, it is going to be
touch and go Globally.

Not liking this one bit. I'd like to see everyone winding down.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

This 35th place showing is the best I've seen. Hopefully we'll keep rising.
We've been as low as 43rd place.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Courtesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁴,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[tsowellfan]

Thanks for posting the stats per capita (per million). The US government / Trump Admin needs to also compare the US with the rest of the world per capita.

I do not agree in the way the media compares our Covid-19 stats with the rest of the world. Instead of comparing the stats per capita (per one million population) they are just giving total number of deaths for each country. It’s not fair nor accurate to compare a nation like ours with our 327 million people (98,787 deaths) to nations like Belgium (pop. 11 million), Spain (pop. 46 million), Italy (pop. 60 million) or France (pop. 66 million). With our 327 million population it’s only obvious that we’re going to have more deaths.

But if you look at it (and I’m looking at a chart not as detailed as yours) per capita Belgium is having the worst time at this point with 817 deaths from Covid-19 per million compared to USA’s 301 deaths from Covid-19 per million. Spain is 2nd highest with 580 deaths per million, UK 557 Covid deaths per million, Italy 545 deaths per million, France 425 Covid deaths per million, Sweden 405 Covid deaths per million... etc. We’re number nine on the list with 301 covid deaths per million.

[buckalfa]

👍👍👍👍👍

[imardmd1]

bmk

[HypatiaTaught]

Flu Season is Over.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“””I urge folks to look at the Provisional Report put out by the CDC. It has reviewed deaths to confirm them. I think their number is more reliable, even if I don’t care much for the way the CDC has seemed to function over the last few years.”””

---

If anything, it appears Worldometer is underreporting the number of deaths vis a vis the CDC.

As we all know, the CDC Provisional Numbers have a time lag as they wait until the death certificates are processed.

In order to adjust for the time lag, I looked at the cumulative deaths as of April 25, 2020 as reported by Worldometer and CDC.

On April 25th Worldometer reported 54,265 deaths,

On May 21st CDC reported 54,529 deaths as of April 25th.
On May 22nd CDC reported 55,601 deaths as of April 25th
On May 26nd CDC reported 56,003 deaths as of April 25th

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Note: Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of May 26, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes)

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“””I urge folks to look at the Provisional Report put out by the CDC. It has reviewed deaths to confirm them. I think their number is more reliable, even if I don’t care much for the way the CDC has seemed to function over the last few years.”””

If anything, it appears Worldometer is underreporting the number of deaths vis a vis the CDC.

As we all know, the CDC Provisional Numbers have a time lag as they wait until the death certificates are processed.

In order to adjust for the time lag, I looked at the cumulative deaths as of April 25, 2020 as reported by Worldometer and CDC.

On April 25th Worldometer reported 54,265 deaths,

On May 21st CDC reported 54,529 deaths as of April 25th.
On May 22nd CDC reported 55,601 deaths as of April 25th
On May 26th CDC reported 56,003 deaths as of April 25th
On May 27th CDC reported 56,205 deaths as of April 25th

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Note: Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of May 26, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes)

Updated with today’s CDC Provisional Numbers.

[Texas Eagle]

Interesting that, in The United States, the difference between recovered and active cases is roughly 600,000 but, worldwide, the difference is less than 500,000.

Am I reading something wrong?

[henkster]

My guess, and just my guess, is that many people are diagnosed, and sit it out at home. Once they are well, they just go back to their lives. There is no consistent follow up to make sure they have recovered. Although logically, three weeks after diagnosis if they ain’t dead, they must have recovered. It’s just that it’s not been confirmed.

[DoughtyOne]

The global area is roughly a month ahead of us, in the progression of the disease. They were infected before we were.

[Texas Eagle]

Got it. Thanks.