Time will tell. It's still "The economy, stupid" and Trump's economy, thanks to Covid-19, is not doing very well. Trump has to run against that.
Make it a referendum on china and globalism.
You do this just to hear yourself talk, dont you? Read what you wrote. Thanks to COVID 19...the voters know that...and because of the recovery through the 3rd qtr due to Trump ignoring the pearl clutchers and pushing the opening plan, hell cruise to reelection flipping some blue states for good measure...all to your sadness.