Posted on 05/08/2020 5:53:05 AM PDT by vespa300
Indeed, Ferguson’s Imperial College model has been proven wildly inaccurate. To cite just one example, it saw Sweden paying a huge price for no lockdown, with 40,000 COVID deaths by May 1, and 100,000 by June. Sweden now has 2,854 deaths and peaked two weeks ago. As Fraser Nelson, editor of Britain’s Spectator, notes: “Imperial College’s model is wrong by an order of magnitude.”
Indeed, Ferguson has been wrong so often that some of his fellow modelers call him “The Master of Disaster.”
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
The author makes the mistake of assuming that a leftist feels any shame. Their ends justify their me. If we can’t get that through our thick heads we will never win.
Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch was even more apocalyptic than Neil Ferguson/Imperial College:
22 Feb: WaPo: Coronavirus outbreak edges closer to pandemic status
By Carolyn Y. Johnson, Lena H. Sun, William Wan and Joel Achenbach; Min Joo Kim in Seoul, Amanda Coletta in Washington and Chico Harlan and Stefano Pitrelli in Rome contributed to this report
Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40 to 70 percent of the human population could potentially be infected by the virus if it becomes pandemic. Not all of those people would get sick, he noted. The estimated death rate attributed to covid-19 — roughly 2 in 100 confirmed infections — may also drop over time as researchers get a better understanding of how widely the virus has spread...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-outbreak-edges-closer-to-pandemic/2020/02/21/03afafc0-5429-11ea-9e47-59804be1dcfb_story.html
altho WaPo didn’t spell it out, 70% of American population with 2% death rate would mean approx. 4.6 million deaths for US alone, 109 million worldwide.
Lipsitch kept changing his story - said he meant up to 70% of ADULTS in the world; that 1% would die, etc. then he revised down to 20 to 60% of adult might get infected. I think Lipsitch wanted to bring his US total deaths down to similar to Ferguson’s 2.2 million.
Lipsitch attacked Birx when she turned on the fake models:
30 Mar: Wired: The Mathematics of Predicting the Course of the Coronavirus
Epidemiologists are using complex models to help policymakers get ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic. But the leap from equations to decisions is a long one.
by Adam Rogers, Megan Molteni
Speaking at a White House briefing on Thursday, Deborah Birx, response coordinator for the Coronavirus Task Force, admonished the press against taking those models too seriously, even as New York governor Andrew Cuomo begged for federal help with acquiring ventilators and protective equipment for health care workers. “The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground,” Birx said.
Responding to Birx in a thread on Twitter, Harvard infectious disease epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch said Birx had been talking about work from his lab, which the federal government had asked for two days prior...
If Lipsitch’s team is right, the characteristics of Covid-19 might require a cyclical flux between strict social distancing and viral resurgence, on and on, perhaps until 2022. If everything goes right, Lipsitch wrote—massive testing and quarantines of the ill, and aggressive social distancing—it’ll be possible to keep numbers down and maybe shorten the timeline. But, Lipsitch said on Twitter, he didn’t see any of that underway...
https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus/
27 Mar: UK Independent: Coronavirus: Dr Deborah Birx making ‘fundamental scientific errors’ in rush to reopen US, warns expert behind White House data
Marc Lipsitch condemned Deborah Birx for presenting a best-case scenario as likely
by Andrew Naughtie
A leading US epidemiologist has accused one of the doctors on the White House’s coronavirus task force of “false reassurance” after she said a model he helped develop to predict the spread of the virus overstated the number of people likely to develop Covid-19 – when in fact it referred to something more like a best-case scenario.
Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard University, has previously criticised the US government for a “feckless” response that has failed to slow the epidemic’s progress, and called for intense social distancing policies coupled with a “massive expansion” in testing capacity...
In response, Professor Lipsitch wrote that “Our modeling (done by @StephenKissler based on work with @ctedijanto and @yhgrad and me) is one of the models she is talking about” – and that on that basis, he found Dr Birx’s explanation misleading...
Among critical problems for the US, he wrote, is that it is unproven whether “US-style social distancing” can bring the transmission rate down, and that the US is “woefully behind” in testing capacity...
Johns Hopkins public health academic Tom Inglesby: “Anyone advising the end of social distancing now, needs to fully understand what the country will look like if we do that. COVID would spread widely, rapidly, terribly, could kill potentially millions in the year ahead with huge social and economic impact across the country.”...
As Mr Lipsitch put it: “The scenario Dr. Birx is ‘assuring’ us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy’s problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the US.
“I desperately hope she is right, because much suffering will be avoided. But reassurance that this is likely, or even plausible, with the disorganized track record of the US response, is false reassurance.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-harvard-scientist-deborah-birx-scientific-error-a9429516.html
IF THERE WERE REAL JOURNALISTS IN THE MSM, THEY WOULD BE INVESTIGATING THE MANY CONNECTIONS BETWEEN LIPSITCH/IMPERIAL COLLEGE/WHO/FERGUSON ETC ETC. FERGUSON MAY BE MR. LOCKDOWN, BUT LIPSITCH IS MR. LOCKDOWN 2.0. BOTH GOT THEIR FAKE MODELS INTO THE WHITE HOUSE. UK, US GOT ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION.
RE-OPEN THE ECONOMIES OF THE WORLD NOW. IT TOOK HOURS TO SHUT THEM DOWN, SO RE-OPEN JUST AS FAST.
Yeah, Dana Perrino actually made a good point the other day on FOX. She said in a passing comment....”Of course the LEFT doesn’t care if you call them a hypocrite.”
She’s right. The LEFT are immune from any criticism. They just shrug it off, could care less. They are mentally unwell, sociopaths.
The hypocrisy of the so called elite is breath taking.
The author makes the mistake of assuming that a leftist feels any shame.
************
Just one of many reasons why trying to find common ground and coexist with them is futile.
This is simple projection by the left. We sinking people known as conservatives know this tactic well. The left projects what they want to happen. Then they present models showing that it will happen. Then behind the curtain they do their dastardly Deeds to try to create a crisis. If it doesn’t happen according to plan, then they adjust their model or plan with help from the media. And the media presents it as news, which it never was... it was simply created from scratch to meet their commie, Agenda 21 goals.
thinking =sinking
I can’t wait for his Globull Warming data. It’s settled science and all scientists agree.
What this really boils down to is the fact that Fauci picked the models he wanted to use based on their political and economic - not medical - impact. This is the same guy who said early on that this coronavirus posed “no threat” and, as late as February, said the threats was “miniscule.” Someone got to him and got his head right - and it sure as hell wasn’t Trump!
Your absolutely right. Fauci picked the model which likely predicted the worst possibilities. Fauci likes big numbers...it gives him an edge in making ridiculous terms of how to handle this bug.
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Wonder if the husband of his paramour would know where ferguson was and exact his revenge...maybe that is why ferguson resigned. So he would be in hiding....certainly more scary than an episode of “friends.”
And the greens are saying, “Oh, look how the air and water are clearing. You need to give us these same powers because OUR computer models say the world is ending.”
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