Posted on 05/03/2020 2:16:18 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update
As of 05/02/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscelanious Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranked with the Other States Territories at Bottom
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Link to Spreadsheet: Our Counties, States, Territories, & Other Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information1
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Links to Other Sources of Information
There are some new links down at the bottom of the report. Those that
link to articles on Free Republic, I would urge you to peek at the
comments below. Some of the comments on the Vitam D thread there are
helpful. They add further information.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Here we go...
The number of Cases rose by smaller numbers than Friday. The new numbers
were more line with Thursday's rather than the lower days before it.
We're headed into the low part of the reporting cycle over the next
couple of days. Hopefully we'll see some new lows.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Here's more of our numbers...
Again, the fatalities fell off yesterday. We'll quantify the drop
down in the Mortality Report section. The big deal mid-day was that the
reporting for the Recoveries was robust. Then when I rean the next
report they were gone. All new Recoveries for yesterday were gone, and we
had gone into negative territory compared to the day before. Then in the
last report of the day, most of the numbers were back. Strange...
This 11,500 Recovery number drop, was vast enough that it affected the
global numbers a lot. Their numbers flagged too, and then they came back
also. This is an indication of what our numbers can do to the global
numbers.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our Slice of the Pie had been slowing. Now it seems
to be picking up steam. Perhaps it's just a temporary situation.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.
Well the growth was minimal today. Our share of the global slice of the
Decalared and Active Cases change very minimally. The Decalred case slice
grew barely, and the Active Case slice dropped minimally.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first chart for the Global Outside China Territories
The Global Outside China Cases grew by 83,222 cases. That's in under
Thurday's numbers. We're entering into the weekly dip period. The next two days
should be encouraging.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
Take a look at the recovery numbers. They were up by over 30,000 at 14:19,
then shed over 5,000 of those before 19:28. Strange. By the end of the day
those numbers were back, and in fact we had nearly the same growth as on
Friday. There's a lot of number manipulation going on. Not sure what
the excuse is.
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Well, a little better yesterday...
Globally the new cases dropped by 10,000 from the previous day, Our numbers dropped by around 6,800.
Yes, we had the same cyclical increase this week like the previous
two. Numbers this weeks seem a bit less than seven days before.
For your review...
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
The same comments fit for about each day here.
Germany has been able to keep their deaths down. Nice job...
Both France and Germany have somehow altered thier trajectory
to a better outcome. As the indications seemed to predict, the
U. K. did pass France and Germany by. Over the last week or so,
it appeared that was likely to happen.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?
Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
I think we've talked the Sweden situation to the point we all get it.
It's still interesting to watch.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.03% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
That recovery percentage continues to climb. It looks like we're headed to
40% and above in the next few days. The Recovery numbers hick-up today
seems to have affected it a bit. I expect it to be back on track tomorrow.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Making an effort to provide more mortality numbers these days.
Hopefully these upcoming numbers and charts will help with that.
Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this area of study.
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
Here's the chart to go along with those figures.
Looks pretty ominious there doesn't it.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
Our numbers are looking good here. We've been dropping for four days.
On the Global scene, the numbers are looking better also. If we go back
ten days, we both were in a much worse place. There has been some
gradual improvement.
Here's two charts to go with the above data.
Each entity is showing progress there over the long haul. I will venture
to remark that this is not the prettiest back side of the curve I've seen.
Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
Our growth has decreased each day, down to 2.54% from 4.34 a few days ago.
Looking at it a different way, we've seen about a 33% drop in growth
from four days ago.
While we seem to be repeating a pathway here, it is good to see us
moving lower in recent days.
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
This area looked quite a bit better a few days ago. Back to
normal here. Ug... Okay, our numbers looked a bit better.
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.
And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Yesterday, was the third highest Saturday we've seen in our nine week
study. I'm looking forward to what the next two days look like.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Some interesting figures there for various segments.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Natons?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There were 212 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 212 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category has the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with 31 top spots on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the Disctrict of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
In the next day or two we'll have administered our seven millionth test.
We still can't seem to move up from the low 41st - 43rd position range. Drat!
Today we're sitting there at 42 with a big smile on our face.
Section: 10
Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, and Nations214
Four Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nazal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
I am still looking for a source that provides the number of daily tests completed; that is, the daily total of negatives and positives reported each day. A weekly total would be almost as good.
The media keeps quoting various states saying they are ramping up testing further, and usually in a big way, but there was a post on FR recently stating that the total tests (public and private) completed the week of 4/19-25 was actually slightly less than the total for 4/12-18. I found that slightly hard to believe, but if we are testing mainly symptomatic people, and with the lockdowns, etc., flu and other respiratory illnesses are way down, maybe the number of people who think they might have the bug is down???
Anyway, daily would be better, but at a minimum, can someone provide:
Total tests completed 3/01-3/07/2020
Total positives for COVID-19 3/01-3/07/2020
Total tests completed 3/08-3/14/2020
Total positives for COVID-19 3/08-3/14/2020
Total tests completed 3/15-3/21/2020
Total positives for COVID-19 3/15-3/21/2020
Total tests completed 3/22-3/28/2020
Total positives for COVID-19 3/22-3/28/2020
Total tests completed 3/29-4/5/2020
Total positives for COVID-19 3/29-4/5/2020
Total tests completed 4/5-11/2020
Total positives for COVID-19 4/5-11/2020
Total tests completed 4/12-18/2020
Total positives for COVID-19 4/12-18/2020
Total tests completed 4/19-25/2020
Total positives for COVID-19 4/19-25/2020
Total tests completed 4/26-5/02/2020
Total positives for COVID-19 4/26-5/02/2020
These as a graph would be even better...
Thanks!
Even a bad example is useful...."don't do this".
Sweden’s death rate will drop when their old people are dead.
Isn’t it amazing that Sweden has so little regard for their elderly. Such as refusing to put them in ICU just because other European countries are doing it.
https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus
“”””And the number of patients receiving intensive care is not the same as the number of seriously ill patients. People who are especially at-risk due to factors such as old age or underlying conditions may not be admitted to intensive care if doctors judge that they would be unlikely to survive the treatment (this kind of assessment, or something similar, exists in every country). As of April 14th, there was still spare capacity in Sweden’s intensive care units.”””
https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus
How does this factor into the numbers
CDC revising DOWNWARD the corona virus death count by about 40% to 37K?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Testing provides at best a snapshot. Someone who doesn’t have the bug at the time of the test could get it literally minutes later, and that wouldn’t be captured in the test. That’s why it makes sense mainly for people who are symptomatic to get tested, and then for all the people they’ve been in contact with to be tested as well.
Not true—
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
Total Deaths 64,283 as of this morning
Im pointing out that there is a discrepancy in how cdc was reporting cases. If they can’t keep their numbers straight, how can they be relied on for keeping other matters concerting this nonsense straight as well?
Peace be with you.
It is not a discrepancy-—
From the CDC website you noted.
“””
Note: Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of May 1, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes). Counts will be updated periodically. Additional information will be added to this site as available.
The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.
The provisional data presented on this page include the weekly provisional count of deaths in the United States due to COVID-19, deaths from all causes and percent of expected deaths (i.e., number of deaths received over number of deaths expected based on data from previous years), pneumonia deaths (excluding pneumonia deaths involving influenza), pneumonia deaths involving COVID-19, influenza deaths, and deaths involving pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19; (a) by week ending date and (b) by specific jurisdictions.”””
Do what? It’s still there for you to see.
It factors in where it always should have. We all knew there
were games being played. This is how you eliminate those
games.
You look at the death certificates and make an honest
evaluation. You don’t just say, “Oops, too bad about the
kidneys, another COVID-19 victim.”
I’m pretty tough on the CDC for not getting ready when it
knew this was coming. This doesn’t bother me so much.
It’s them coming along and doing something they should do.
When things are reported to you, you take the reports at
face value. Then later on you try to verify what is
being reported to you. When you can’t, you make it public.
Does this give the folks who want to reopen more ammo?
Sure it does. The mortality rates are much lower than we
were told they were going to be, by people who were told
themselves the rates would be astronomical.
This is why YOU NEVER buy into all the hype up front.
Every little video clip from China that showed something
bad was thought of by some as “having to be true”. Well
we sure didn’t see the sorts of things they supposedly
did.
All the hype did was make our leaders afraid not to go
ballistic about preventative measures.
The next one of these to come along, I hope a lot of people
will tell the worry warts to shut the hell up.
People had no idea if what they were scaring everyone with
was true or not. It really screwed us all over in the end.
Our leaders had no choice with the public scared to death.
No, it’s not exactly the flue. Still, just like many of
us said, the numbers look a lot like flu numbers, and we
don’t shut down for the flu.
I’ve been willing to play devil’s advocate. What if we
open up and many more die. It’s a fair question. If the
37,000 figure is accurate, we should open up.
This is nonsensical at this point
Thank you. Same to you.
Mostly agreed, but,
A) If other diseases that might prompt someone to desire testing are way down (flu, and [normally big numbers] colds*) then testing might level off or decrease while spread of COVID-19 continues. This is in one sense just a data oddity, as positive symptomatic COVID-19 cases are still detected, but it might explain lack of further increases in testing.
*I don’t know about anyone else, but several years ago I went through a few years of occasional colds that would knock me on my behind for a day or so. Definitely they were bad enough that in today’s environment, I’d have attempted to get tested. Thankfully I’ve not had more of those recently. I doubt I’m “healthier” otherwise, now, so I attribute them to some specific cold virus I was particularly prone to getting whacked hard by.
B) “A” leaves us with still a poor idea of the number of asymptotic cases. There are the antibody tests*, I suppose, but those are a rather lagging indicator. This virus can move so fast that I’m not exactly thrilled by lagging indicators when it comes to tamping down hotspots. We don’t even really have more than guesses on how many people in varying groups (racial, disease history, obesity, etc.) may be asymptomatic.
*Are positive antibody tests included in reported “positives”? “Recovered” cases? I do not know.
the numbers look a lot like flu numbers,
...WITH heavy handed mitigation applied sooner in the spread than China's clampdown.
(Our mitigation was less "heavy" than China's, but despite some CDC screw-ups we acted sooner. Past a certain point, timing is even more critical than mitigation level in the initial explosive spread. If you mitigate too late, nothing saves the already fatally infected people.)
I'd also point out that at best we are only in the COVID-19 2nd inning, and certainly headed to 80k+ fatalities by June 1. 100k by 6/1 would not surprise me if the weather does not cooperate, and, the Central and Eastern US look to be mostly cooler than normal for the next couple weeks. Drat!
Our COVID-19 mitigation had the not insignificant effect of stomping the heck out of our flu season. I think flipping that around can give some idea where COVID-19 was headed.
Consider even Sweden's approach applied to NYC's less healthy population and density / mingling... I'm pretty darn sure U.S.N.S. Mercy would on May 4 be very very busy...
Given the economic destruction (including mine!!! - but I also have vulnerable family members), it is hard for me to say what is "right". It's Kobayashi Maru.
I find myself taking both sides of this issue, depending on
the conversation and where anyone is presenting it.
I know that sounds like flip-flopping, it’s a risk I’m
willing to take.
I want these issues to be considered. Is this like the flu?
Is it not winding up to have a body count more like the flu?
The CDC just completed a review of the cases through 04/25,
and found that the actual death toll at that point was
37,000 and change. That compares to the 54,000 and change
(or close to it) that was being presented by WorldoMeters
and Johns Hopkins University on that date.
So while your argument is somewhat sound, and I’m am
sympathetic to it, to a point, I’m not sure that’s going
to hold up in the end.
The question is, will that 81k actually be 81k, or will
it be more like 53k? I don’t know.
I’m also having a hard time buying into the mitigation
saving us idea, since we’ve been in lock down for so long
and we’re still seeing massive new cases.
Doesn’t look like much of a lock down to me. I live on
the edge of a foothill in SoCal, and I have a birds eye
on traffic. There’s a steady stream of it.
Obviously we don’t have everyone working and going to
school, so I think you have a valid arguement, but it sure
does make me think.
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