Posted on 04/27/2020 6:20:58 PM PDT by RomanSoldier19
That’s total bunk.
They’re doing about the same as we are.
That all makes perfect sense.
But, one way or another herd immunity is what stops this, correct? Either by vaccine or by natural antibodies.
Our economy, and social structure cannot withstand the current level of shutdown long enough to wait on a vaccine. So, as long as our hospitals are not over whelmed, shouldn’t healthy people be “out there” catching and getting over this virus?
I’m not in health care, but I understand how our economy actually functions.
They are totally not the same scientists. Life sciences and earth sciences are not interchangeable.
It may be impossible to achieve herd immunity. Immunity to other coronaviruses is not permanent, and it is uncertain whether Covid-19 antibodies will actually protect against reinfection. In addition, there are technical issues with developing a vaccine.
The ideal situation is to completely eliminate the disease. That means social distancing, washing hands frequently, etc. We have a better chance of finding a drug to treat this than finding a vaccine at this point. I am hoping that once summer comes, we will have a reprieve to really fight this.
I keep seeing people worrying about the economy and advocating for a return to normal while the pandemic is still underway. That actually would be worse economically than the current measures. What happens if we reach a point where millions are infected and tens of thousands are dying every day? Isn't that just a little hard on the economy?
I agree with you regarding a treatment being the most important thing...however I am not a scientist and am endanger of talking out of my nether regions in regards to medical matters. It just makes sense, given how hard it is to acquire reliable vaccines for viruses. We don’t have either a vaccine or cure for the common cold.
But holding back the economy is perhaps even a faster way to societal destruction. In the Great Depression, we came very close to going socialist, capitalist economies don’t get to fail many times before the totalitarians sweep in and take over. We could go full-on socialist as early as November if the economy remains in the tank. AOC and her Muslim friends could well become the power in D.C. if the economic collapse continues.
So which mode of destruction do we prefer...the virus taking out a couple million of us older folks, or the totalitarians sweeping into power? Either one could end us...but economic collapse WILL certainly end, us and blazingly fast.
It might be... depending on who is dying. If they're 99% elderly and infirmed, it's not that big an economic hit.
That would be tragic... but, so far, we haven't see that kind of impact from this virus, anywhere. Far from it.
If there were no herd immunity from this virus, why would the rate of new cases be dropping virtually everywhere? If this virus is THAT contagious, social distancing wouldn't be stopping it.
My China team is virtually back to normal. They're traveling again, eating in restaurants again. Somehow, it's not spreading there anymore.
If we can't get herd immunity, and we don't have a vaccine, then... how do you "get rid of it"?
An economic collapse caused by the disease itself will be much more difficult to recover from than economic hardship brought on by trying to save lives. The lives lost, not to mention the education and experience of those people is a blow that will have a very long lasting effect.
The Great Depression was prolonged by socialist policies. I am very aware that socialists are trying to use the pandemic to force themselves into power. That is a danger we must avoid.
As for the disease, I think that if we cannot eradicate it, we will come up with new customs, new ways to live to avoid transmission.
Despite the stories you keep hearing about how this virus is SO contagious that millions of people have already had it without even showing symptoms, in reality it is only about as contagious as a regular cold. The social distancing policies are working, by putting spatial and physical barriers to the transmission of virus. Also, most cold viruses are seasonal; if this one is seasonal as will, we should begin to see a drastic drop off soon.
Are you sure? In Sweden, they're already seeing a very dramatic dropp-off, and they never "socially distanced" as strongly as we did.
I am 100% sure our economy is falling off a cliff... despite nearly $6 TRILLION in stimulus. Layoffs are just starting. Bankruptcies are stacking up. We are teetering on total economic collapse. The kind that will kill a lot more than just the elderly and infirmed.
Just HOW SURE are you that letting young, healthy people develop their own anti-bodies is not a better path? Cause, I'm telling you, your plan dooms us all.
Actually, Sweden is not doing nearly as well as its neighbors. There are graphs and analysis in the daily Covid-19 thread. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3839583/posts. There are many countries that are doing better than Sweden.
Check out their latest case numbers. It’s way down.
I have friends who live there. Their “ deaths per million” people is just slightly higher than the US.
Again, I ask : How SURE are you? Based on your medical expertise? Because I am 100% we’re screwed, economically, if we don’t get this economy re-booted in the next month. If you’re right, we have no hope:
Check out their latest case numbers. It’s way down.
I have friends who live there. Their “ deaths per million” people is just slightly higher than the US.
Again, I ask : How SURE are you? Based on your medical expertise? Because I am 100% we’re screwed, economically, if we don’t get this economy re-booted in the next month. If you’re right, we have no hope:
Look at the graphs comparing Sweden to its neighbors. It really is not doing that well. And having deaths per million higher than the US is not good, when the US seems to be ahead of a lot of other countries in this regard.
Good point.
https://kygeonet.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/543ac64bc40445918cf8bc34dc40e334
Ky new cases were practically down to nothing as of 4 days ago. We’ve only had 235 deaths. 90% of those were people over 60.
So, why can’t our schools re-open?
In Kentucky, only 0.1% of the population even HAD a confirmed case. Only 0.005% of our population died… and, as I said, nearly ALL of them were elderly.
For this, we’ve put thousands of people out of work, bankrupted the state’s unemployment benefit fund, put practically every small business underwater, probably permanently closed a third of our restaurants, closed all Churchs, prohibited ALL public gatherings…
And STILL, Our Demoncrat Governor, Andy Beshear, doesn’t want to let us open things up??
Don’t even try to convince me this was all based in science.
There is a lot of value in targeting the quarantines to the most affected areas.
The goal of infection control is to isolate those who might have been exposed and to have reasonable safeguards against the minority of cases where no symptoms are apparent and yet are contagious.
Some of the measures do not make sense.
There are plenty of things that can be done to limit the spread of disease without overly imposing on people’s liberties. For example, there is a waterfront park in town. Our city council (or whatever) decided to make the promenade one way traffic only. Makes sense, because then people are not facing other people. Now there is a requirement in military stores to wear a mask.
Totally agree. I just don't think the primary goal in many states has been to simply "limit the spread". The goal has been "economic destruction so Trump can be defeated". And, they have been wildly successful in the first part.
I think, the goal shouldn't to "limit the spread". The goal should be to "control the spread" to a rate that doesn't overwhelm our hospitals. Granted, that's a tricky thing to do with a virus that take 7-14 days to present symptom. So, we were right to be aggressive at the start.
If we could start over, I think the correct approach for MOST places would have been:
- Isolate people >50 years old as much as possible
- Super-Isolate people >70 and in poor health.
- Keep schools open, but operating with increased hygiene and fewer large gatherings
- Eliminate large gatherings of adult.
- Encourage all those who can work from home to do so, - Let nearly all small businesses continue to operate, but with Social Distancing (Masks, limits on capacity, etc) in place
Allowing the virus to spread and exhaust itself among the young and healthy would ultimately have been a less painful course of action. I wish someone would have modeled that.
I think that idea really is not feasible. How many people actually fall into the "young and healthy" category? I find that 16% of the population is over age 65 (https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/AGE775218). Another 8.6% of people under age 65 are disabled. I do not know how they determine disability. Conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, and obesity increase the severity of Covid-19--how many people have those? According to the CDC, 39.8% of the population is obese, and 10.5% have diabetes (www.diabetesresearch.org/diabetes-statistics). Not to mention the fact that even among the "young and healthy", Covid-19 still kills at a rate higher than influenza.
I think that the answer is to get everyone to consider every other person a potential source of infection and to behave accordingly. Wear the masks, practice social distancing, wash hands frequently, don't face other people if they are less than 6 feet away. Etc.
I agree with all of that, but... without forced Stay-at-home orders.
Statistically, people under 40 are at extremely low risk. For sure, unless they are cancer patients or transplant recipients, they should be able to largely go about their business... albeit, with the guidelines you suggested.
50-60 year olds aren't dying much either. It gets a bit dicier when looking at people over 60.
Basically, I believe is letting people decided for themselves, based on their own health status.
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