Coronavirus Lockdown Halted in Malawi

Plans for a lockdown in Malawi have been scuppered at the last minute, after a court injuction ordered it be delayed by at least seven days, lawyers say.

The news will come as a relief to traders who have fiercely opposed a lockdown because of the serious threat they say it poses to their livelihoods.

That’s a mistake. Poor countries should have some of the most stringent lockdowns, even if it is an overreaction, with their governments providing food to the poor. Rich countries can experiment with opening up their cities - for the simple reason that if something goes awry in the reopening of cities, the wealthy nations have the resources and health infrastructure to absorb negative effects for the most part.

That is not the case for poor countries.

Due to corruption, inept leadership, misapplication of funds etc etc etc (lack of resources in poor countries ranks well below things like corruption and bad leadership), poor countries simply cannot experiment.

A good example of what happens when things go wrong in a poor country is Ecuador, where they are leaving dead bodies in the streets. The link below shows how things have shat themselves in Ecuador:

https://youtu.be/XHsfjnRB-uA

Bottomline - wealthy nations like the US, Italy, UK etc can see if there are more efficient ways to solve the COVID19 situation without locking themselves up in fear. But countries like Malawi and other poor countries in Africa, Latin America and Southern Asia would probably find it prudent to lock up, feed the poor and see how the wealthier nations of the world resolve COVID19 first.

Rich countries have bad demographics for this virus warehouse their elderly, and coddle immune systems. They also are able to print money and give a few months wages to many people quickly and without immediately causing hyper inflation.

Ecuador used to be a more prosperous country.

It also wouldn’t surprise me if Ecuador was already leaving a few bodies on the street.

On a thread about the four inner-city Atlanta hospitals being over capacity with people on beds in the hall, someone pointed out that this was not an infrequent occurrence before anyone had heard of COVID 9.

Well, most of Africa doesn’t get the flu. Also bad leadership, endemic corruption, systemic nepotism where the cream often falls and the turds rise to the top, and decades of mismanagement and underinvestment have resulted in health infrastructure that is significantly underinvested and woefully inadequate. This means that if COVID19 is more than just a flu, such nations would be absolutely hammered.

Now, seeing the deaths that happened in Italy, how the British NHS is close to being overwhelmed, and how NYC until a week ago was looking really bad, I get worried. Sure - Northern Italy may have a preponderance of old vulnerable people, the NHS may not be the best example to use, and Cuomo appeared to be quite unprepared. So, people may have reasons why that didn’t work there.

But my point is that all those examples are from wealthy geographies. If they don’t go on lockdown and let’s assume COVID19 is not just a flu, they have the ability to throw massive resources at the problem to fix it.

Countries like Malawi - and most countries in Africa and Latin America - are simply not capable of that. Already Ecuador is undergoing a very real crisis, and maybe when the flu hits Ecuador they also leave bodies in the streets or maybe there might be something about COVID19.

Either way, my point is this - poor countries (at this point) should practice strict social distancing and assume the worst. When the US reopens starting May 1 we will all (very quickly) see if things get better or things get worse. If they get better, the poor countries can reopen too. If they get worse, then the poor countries learn a lesson without having to pay the cost.

But poor countries simply cannot afford to assume COVID19 is nothing ...and be wrong.

Actually no, not the internet. By living here. Even among my extended friends - across countries - none of us bother with a flu vaccine due to it simply not being a problem here.

But going back to my original point - poor countries should wait through the month of May and observe how wealthy countries who reopen cope. All will be evident very quickly whether it’s something or nothing.

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