Posted on 04/10/2020 7:32:03 AM PDT by semantic
Europe could be close to herd immunity from coronavirus ALREADY with 15% of people carrying antibodies say researchers studying city dubbed 'German Wuhan' Up to 15 per cent of people in hard-hit German town may already have immunity Researchers discovered that Gangelt could be closer to immunity than thought This means Europe as a whole could be closer to herd immunity than expected
Europe could be close to herd immunity from coronavirus already, with far more people infected than previously thought, according to a study in Germany. Scientists studying Gangelt, the town at the centre of Germany's first big outbreak dubbed the 'German Wuhan', discovered that as many as 15 per cent of people may have already been infected with the virus and acquired immunity.
They said yesterday that they had found antibodies to the virus in people who had shown no symptoms of coronavirus, boosting hopes that the spread is slowing. If 15 per cent of people do have antibodies, then Germany's actual death rate could be as low as 0.37 per cent. This is five times lower than the current level.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
There is no logical way that CV wasn't in Calif literally 24 hrs after it showed up in Hubei back in the fall. That's why everyone was sick this winter with the non-flu; don't worry that it knocked people (such as myself) out.
Then we start seeing the slow reveal that the vast majority of CV fatalities are at risk elderly & co-morbids (hence the disproportionate AA numbers), while young and normal healthy are a-ok.
And then the grand finale, we discover fed funds are being directed to HC providers for reimbursements if CV is noted. Not the cause of death, but just the mere presence of CV alone.
I am still amazed that it didn’t spread across China.
“may”
15% may?
That’s Herd immunity?
Gosh, the stupidity makes you marvel.
Antibody testing is going to produce a LOOOOOOOOOOONG string of Emily Litella moments for Fauci, Birx & Co.
Of course, there are other articles which hint that immunity may last less than a year. So, it’s barely immunity at all. And, likewise, a vaccine may not succeed if anti-bodies in effect get flushed out of your system after a few months.
If herd immunity isn’t possible, then I don’t know what we do. But I do know that shutting down the economy is no solution.
I know 15% is nothing, it has to be around 90% to be effective
The Chinese closed off Wuhan from the rest of China, but kept multitudes of flights going from Wuhan to cities around the world. I am not a big conspiracy gal, but this does make me wonder....
Yea, but the genie had been out of the bottle for weeks.
No such thing has herd immunity. It is only a lack of exposure.
“I am still amazed that it didn’t spread across China.”
It did.
I disagree. If "most" people have had it, the chances of an infected person passing it on are lower, since most of the people that person comes in contact with are already immune. It drops the fabled "R0."
Or, maybe I'm not understanding what you're getting at.
Oh, yes. I forgot. There are 200 million missing cell phone users in China. Their bodies have all been thrown into the ovens. Even some that were still alive.
A lot can happen in a year. Like everything else in nature viruses are subject to natural selection. They tend to mutate to milder forms over time, because any virus that kills its host is a Darwinian dead-ender.
The scenario you describe only works when there is a controlled environment. Consider a community that believes it has “herd immunity”. Now assume that same population when someone external comes in who is carrier. “Herd immunity” does not provide any IMMUNITY. It only reduces the risk of exposure. And when there are not controls (open boarders) that permit those who are carriers to enter that population, those who were relying on the “herd immunity” are now at risk.
As a real world example, consider the recent resurgence of measles in the US. For a while there, much of the US was considered to have herd immunity from measles. Then we allowed a lot of illegal aliens to enter the US. This resulted in a measles resurgence.
Okay, but they tested the city dubbed “German wuhan”. Which mean this city is not representative of the rest of Germany.
And if this study holds up, it still means its 4 times more lethal than the flu. And 4 times as many people have to get it in that city before herd immunity is reached.
We have half a million recent Chinese immigrants in the eastern part of King County. SeaTac has some of the largest numbers of people arriving and departing from China. When the “travel ban” went into effect all people did was divert to Vancouver International and then drive or ride the bus back to our area with little or no health screening. Canada was more than happy to subvert the “travel ban”. Over ten thousand Chinese did this in February to reach our area. It is no wonder Washington had the first cases, the first deaths from coronavirus
11 people on the fire department I retired from recently tested positive for coronavirus. Only 1 of them had any symptoms and his symptoms were so mild that he kept coming to work. The question around here wasn't if you were going to get it, but if you already had it. UW researchers concluded from an epidemiological study of the first cases that we had community spread for weeks before the first case was discovered. They projected tens of thousands of deaths in this area alone. The entire state has now reached just over 400 mostly "presumptive cases" meaning anyone who died from pneumonia was presumed to have it. The death projections have been continually revised downward to now just over 600 by August. It is basically over here, yet Governor Dimsly will still not allow construction workers to return to work.
Not sure I agree here.
If you had true herd immunity in my sense of the word, most people would be immune, and the spread would be minimized. With measles, we have had the benefit of comprehensive vaccination, followed by anti-vax movements. Kids who weren’t vaccinated against measles were susceptible, just as previous generations were before the vaccine.
So, the herd immunity of people who had either had the disease, or had the vaccination, declined to the point where it was flawed, as proved by the response to an injection of new carriers.
Yeah, let’s just see what happens if they start allowing 60,000+ to mass in stadiums to watch soccer.
I believe testing will show that millions of Americans have been exposed to the COV. It’s everywhere, Montana, North Dakota, and Crook County Wyoming (population, one person every 2.5 sq.mi.)
The NYT posts a map daily showing the confirmed cases.
Anecdotally, a friend of mine came back to Texas from Maryland in late December with a severe respiratory infection lasting two weeks. He tested negative for the flu. My son, on a military base, had the worst flu like symptoms he’s ever had lasting a week, six weeks ago.
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