[ETCM]

Compare Sweden with its neighbour, Norway. Norway has restrictions similar to the US or Canada (afaik).

Sweden’s population is about 10 million, Norway’s about 5.6 million.

As of 14:40, April 4, Sweden had 6,380 cases; Norway had 5,579.

Norway has conducted 20X as many tests as Sweden, and Sweden has almost 6X as many deaths as Norway. Clearly, Sweden has a much higher infection rate than Norway, but doesn't have robust testing.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

That's a good point (about the different testing ratios). However, as all the presentations on curve-flattening show, aggressive social-distancing spreads out the infections over time; but, is not expected to reduce the aggregate number of infections proportionately. Also, you should compare statistics on a per/people basis, rather than a country-by-country basis. On a per/people basis, Sweden has 3x the death rate as Norway (nearly 2X the population).

If Sweden’s approach were to be continued (apparently, they've changed strategies); we would have had the makings of a natural experiment. We could see how the overall infection rate was mitigated, and (before long) learn the effects on the total deaths. That would be very useful information, for determining when it's reasonable to reopen the economy.

If Sweden's medical resources (hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilators) do not become overwhelmed; then, they might not have any larger death rate than Norway (other things being equal). If the medical resources become overwhelmed, that would definitely increase the rate in Sweden.