Gov. Cuomo Says New York CCP Virus Deaths Are Down ‘For the First Time’

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Sunday that COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations in New York have dropped, but he cautioned it’s too early to tell if the new figures will become a trend.

New York state has now seen 4,159 virus deaths as of Sunday, an increase of 594 fatalities in the past 24 hours, Cuomo said in a news conference. A total of 122,031 people in New York state have tested positive for the virus, up by around 9,000 cases in the same time-frame.

Cuomo said New York City, the hardest-hit area in the United States, has experienced 67,551 cases of the CCP virus, a type of novel coronavirus that causes the disease COVID-19 that emerged in Wuhan, China, last year.

New York could be near its apex of new virus cases and deaths, said Cuomo, but he stressed that it will take several days to know for sure.

“I hope we’re somewhere near the apex, or we’re somewhere near the plateau,” he told a news conference, adding that “the number of deaths has been dropping for the first time.”

The death toll rose by 594 Sunday, while 630 people died Saturday. However, Cuomo stressed that it could be “too early to tell” the significance of the drop in deaths after noting that the death rate dropped “for the first time.”

There has been a “shift to Long Island” while “upstate New York is basically flat… as Long Island grows the percentage of cases in NYC has reduced,” he said.

“The number of beds doesn’t really matter anymore,” Cuomo also said in the press conference. “We have the beds, it’s the ventilators and then it’s the staff. That’s the problem.” He added that New York is working to use anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine as a method of treatment.

How do these actual numbers match up with the IHME model of the epidemic that reportedly heavily influenced the White House’s own model? It depends on what you’re measuring. IHME’s forecast of the daily death toll has been quite accurate so far:

That number was within 13 of the actual number provided by Cuomo. If anything, the model has underestimated deaths so far: On April 3 IHME projected 538 deaths from COVID-19 in New York State whereas the actual death roll was nearly 100 higher, beyond even the upper bound of the IHME’s range of likely fatalities for that day. Higher-than-expected numbers recently would make sense if in fact New York is peaking now instead of five days from now, as IHME’s forecast imagined, but it’d be hard to square an early peak with the social distancing measures that NYS has put it in place. Flattening the curve is supposed to delay the peak of the epidemic, not accelerate it, and to reduce the number of deaths during the peak. Right now New York may be peaking early — while also holding the number of peak deaths down from IHME’s projection of 855. How to reconcile that?

If you’re looking at hospitalizations instead of deaths, then IHME is way, way, waaaaaaaay off:

They thought 65,000+ hospital beds and 12,000 ICU beds would be needed to house the sick as of yesterday. The reality?

12,187 coronavirus patients have been discharged from hospitals in NY. An increase of 1709 patients discharged since yesterday's report at NY Gov Cuomo's press briefing. Heartbreaking news is that # of deaths is now 4,159 (up from 3565) pic.twitter.com/IRlS6sNrU7
— Pearl Freier (@PearlF) April 5, 2020

The current number of hospitalizations is literally a quarter of the IHME forecast. That’s a big miss. The number of new hospitalizations noted in that graphic, 574, also popped for me. Look at the trend over the last five days and you’ll see that the state was adding around 2,500 new hospitalizations per day (give or take a few hundred) steadily. Suddenly the bottom has fallen out of that number, with three times as many people discharged from hospitals as added. I’m guessing there must be a weekend artifact in counting here too, with some counties in New York possibly not reporting their numbers until Monday.

No matter what the numbers are tomorrow, though, the IHME model is obviously way out of whack with reality in New York on hospitalizations. What explains it? It could be that the model is wildly overestimating the general hospitalization rate from COVID-19, obviously — although, as noted, it’s not overestimating the raw number of fatalities. (So far.) Alternatively, it could be that the aggressive social distancing measures taken in New York State have succeeded better than anyone might have hoped in limiting the spread, preventing a giant wave of infections that would have made IHME’s expectations more realistic. It’s hard to believe that that explains everything, though, given how wide of the mark IHME’s expectations were. Even the lower bound of their hospitalization range for April 4 was nearly three times the number of actual hospitalizations.

31 Mar: Russia Today: Covid-19’s meant to be a new Black Death, but in Britain no more people are dying than NORMAL. What does this say about the virus?
By Peter Andrews, Irish science journalist and writer, based in London. He has a background in the life sciences, and graduated from the University of Glasgow with a degree in genetics
Many people are waking up to the fact that the Covid-19 “pandemic” is not turning out as billed. When we finally emerge from it, the big question will be how many people have died from the virus. Here’s the most likely outcome.

You can bet that the institutions of international government, and the “experts” advising them, will try to massage and cherry-pick statistics to present the version of events that most closely matches their worst-case scenarios. The fact is, according to their early predictions, we are already long overdue millions of Covid-19 deaths that have failed to materialise.

But even when Covid-19 deaths are recorded, we have seen how it could be that people are dying with coronavirus rather than dying of it...

The most popular two articles (LINK) on the website of The Spectator over the weekend were by Dr John Lee, a recently retired NHS consultant and professor of pathology. He remarks that ‘’we have yet to see any statistical evidence for excess deaths, in any part of the world’’

To check this out, I looked at the British government’s own statistics on total deaths registered weekly across the UK. It shows that in the week ending on the 8th of March 2019, 10,898 people died in total in the UK. This year, in the week ending the 6th of March 2020, the equivalent figure was almost identical: 10,895. Make of that what you will. Statistics are currently available up to March 20, and while there is a lag between the spread of the virus and the resulting deaths, so far only about 1 percent of all mortalities bear any relation to coronavirus, and there is no visible spike. If nothing else, it helps to view the extent of the crisis in proportion - thousands of people die each week, and from the long-term view what we are seeing is not a plague, but a blip.
So when all is said and done, will any additional people die of the coronavirus? And what is meant by extra or additional?...

Remember above all to not take the figures the mainstream media throw at you at face value; there are lies, damned lies and statistics.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/484548-coronavirus—people-die-outcome/

UK Office for National Statistics: Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 20 March 2020
•The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 20 March 2020 (week 12) was 10,645; this represents a decrease of 374 deaths registered compared with the previous week (week 11).
•The average number of deaths for the corresponding week over the previous five years was 10,573; this means that the overall number of deaths in week 12 of 2020 was slightly higher than previous years...

•This number is different from the count of deaths published on the GOV.UK website because of different reporting methods and timing: Office for National Statistics (ONS) weekly deaths figures are based on deaths registered in the stated week, and we have counted all deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate as “deaths involving COVID-19”; the GOV.UK figures are based on deaths occurring to date, among hospital patients who have tested positive for COVID-19, and include deaths that have not yet been registered...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending20march2020

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