Deaths on or about Easter are 29,718 for the US including NY/NJ. "Herd immunity" will take a 60 to 80 percent infection rate, depending on transmissibility. I'll be updating the curves tonight to start on the day of 100 deaths (3/17/20). THis should yield a tighter fit.
I’ve tweaked the curve fits and added the latest reported data. For Easter Sunday, confirmed cases at 588,793 and deaths at 29.588. This is for the entire United States. The R-squared on the fits are 0.9998 and 0.9996, respectively.