Posted on 04/03/2020 8:02:49 AM PDT by Hojczyk
Today the Star Tribune finally gets around to taking a look — an extremely clouded look — at Walz’s in Jeremy Olson’s story “Disease data modeling, in Minnesota and elsewhere, varies greatly.” Subhead: “Modeling by the Minnesota Department of Health and the University of Minnesota directly informed Gov. Tim Walz and guided his stay-at-home order.”
What is Walz’s model? How many lives will the current, extremely destructive shutdown save, if any? Let us extract the references to Walz’s model:
Modeling by the Minnesota Department of Health and the University of Minnesota persuaded Gov. Tim Walz to announce the current stay-at-home order. The modeling is conservative, perhaps pessimistic, about the course of the outbreak, said Stefan Gildemeister, state health economist, but the Washington model may be optimistic and overlooking risk factors in the United States that could make the outbreak worse.
“Saying that the Washington approach is optimistic is not saying that we think we’re right,” he said. “Some of our assumptions might have turned out to be unusually conservative. In fact, we’ve been saying this from the beginning. We will continue to test our assumptions and change them.”
The Minnesota modeling wasn’t designed to forecast deaths but rather how much they would decline under social distancing restrictions. Gildemeister and colleagues concluded that deaths could decline by one-third under the current stay-at-home strategy — primarily by delaying the surge of cases so that hospitals have more time to prepare.
When it comes to the death numbers, any change in assumptions makes a dramatic difference. The Minnesota researchers used hospitalization and death rates that increase with age and were first used by colleagues at Imperial College.
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
So are life is governed by models...
Will the Climate crazies love this..
So we are just prolonging the exact same out come..and destroy the economy????
Looks to me like the CDC panicked and did not want to change there assessment
s time went on
Is the coronavirus meta-narrative nothing but a sort of duel between anti-Trump and pro-Trump forces, one side seeking to delay economic return and the other to hasten it?
With the election as the target?
And the wild card a struggle between doubt and fear regarding the lethality of the virus?
Fauci and the other Docs advising the President continue to deny the obvious: HydroxyQ and Z-pac use for the disease is an effective treatment and maybe effective as a preventative for first responders and medical staff. They want to study it and delay widespread use. That delay will permanently kill our economy. Once we are over the current disease apex, the President should lift the controls on the economy, ask people to maintain social distancing and take reasonable precautions with the understanding that there is an effective treatment, particularly if started early, if a person catches the disease.
Fauci is a HUGE DEMOCRAT HILLIARY LOVER!!!
Thanks I’ve bee looking for something like that.
Actually, the real wild card is something much, much deeper. Maybe seventeen times deeper.
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