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To: kabar

No, the CCP says the economy is up and running and while infections are down it does not meant their export market (a full fifth of their gdp) is recovering. It was decreasing by $5 billion a month BEFORE the virus hit.

On top of that, their dollar reserves are in even worse shape. When everyone is scrambling to buy bonds now, China is selling them like there is no tomorrow in exchange for dollars because no one wants yuan. They can’t do that for very long and soon enough their imports will start to suffer.


39 posted on 04/02/2020 8:52:24 AM PDT by Raymann
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To: Raymann
It was decreasing by $5 billion a month BEFORE the virus hit.

China exports $2.5 trillion annually (2018) and imports $2.1 trillion. $5 billion is not that big a deal in the short term.

On top of that, their dollar reserves are in even worse shape. When everyone is scrambling to buy bonds now, China is selling them like there is no tomorrow in exchange for dollars because no one wants yuan. They can’t do that for very long and soon enough their imports will start to suffer.

The U.S. debt to China is $1.07 trillion as of December 2019.  That's 16% of the $6.7 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. They can always sell T-bills to get dollars. T-bills are not that great of an investment now that the Fed has lowered interest rates to almost zero.

China holds reserves of foreign currency and gold of $3.236 trillion (31 December 2017 est.) Most of their imports involve energy (oil, gas, and coal) and agricultural products. The top five import partners are South Korea 9.7%, Japan 8.6%, US 7.3%, Germany 5%, and Australia 4.9% (2018).

A strong dollar will hurt imports, but the Chinese will use the weakness of the Yuan and the strength of the dollar to gain a competitive advantage. The current low cost of energy will also help their exports and imports. The Russian-Saudi deal today could change that.

60 posted on 04/02/2020 11:28:35 AM PDT by kabar
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