Posted on 03/31/2020 7:06:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Originally, the mission was stated as "we must flatten the curve". It has now morphed into "protect every single life", even those who insist on risky behavior. Lots of the Governor's want to be seen as Churchillian, and are drunk with their power, and mesmerized by the sound of their own voices. They would tear Trump apart politically, if the reopens the earliest possible date. They don't really care about the economy so long as they are in charge and they can blame Trump.
Nah, once we’re over this hump, it will likely die down until fall when we will
be much better prepared.
semantic wrote:
“3/29 Original projection (Trump basis for month long extension); April 15 peak; 150k total deaths
3/31 Updated projection (Trump basis, 2 days updated actuals); 93k total”
Thanks for the graph and info!
Dude, they shut down the entire economy at a STARTING cost of $2 trillion. I think the public will accept some surveillance as an alternative to these measures. The government isn’t supposed to have the right to arrest people for leaving their homes either. So I think they might just be able to get away with reading your cell phone tracking data if you test positive. Sick people lose their rights in a quarantine as a general rule. That can include privacy rights as well as rights of movement. The key is nobody who has not tested positive should ever lose any rights.
Notice there is never a story on recovery.........always death.
Germany is doing well. Taiwan is doing well. IMO it has to do with culture, organization, and societal discipline. I have lived in Germany and Italy as well as four other European countries. It is predictable for me that Germany would perform significantly better.
You are usually one of our more sensible FReepers: I believe the more you look into all factors, you'll see that Dr. Fauci's stated sense of it (fatalities over infected persons), which is lower than "just the math" and places a range right around the .66% figure given in the thread article, is as good an estimate as any. He's just smart enough to give a range.
I want to see more data. CDC adds 39 million to the denominator to arrive at its mortality estimate for the seasonal flu. This covers those estimated unreported cases of the flu, hence the .1% mortality rate. The number of those actually tested used by the CDC is about 1.4 million reported by public and private platforms. I am not buying the .6% mortality rate.
The trouble is, even a baseline 0.3 CFR (fatalities over infections) is a horrific problem if the number of active infections grows too large: Then the health care system is overwhelmed by serious and critical cases and that rockets up the CFR...
The protection of our healthcare system has been the real objective of this exercise, not the saving of lives. The fear, as you note, is overwhelming the system crowding out other care due the virus. The H1NI infected 60 million and killed 12,000. The 2017/18 seasonal flu killed 61,000 and had 810,000 hospitalized.
I can understand our initial reaction to this "novel" virus. No history, no vaccine, and WHO estimates of 3% to 4% mortality rates. Various models were predicting deaths in the millions. But we have more data now. The virus is less deadly than thought. I am concerned that the medical technocrats are driving public policy. They should have an input, but this crisis has become much more than a medical one. Just as in war, there has to be an acceptance of a certain level of casualties. We do that every year with the seasonal flu.
“but it’s still deadlier than seasonal flu”
TOTAL NONSENSE!
The flu has killed over 60,000 this season and the COVID virus maybe 2000.
Typical liberals, can’t do math.
RE:The flu has killed over 60,000 this season and the COVID virus maybe 2000.
Make that nearly 3,500 for Covid-19 as of this writing.
I think that if the drug trials are very positive, they will shorten the SAH orders and start the country up again.
Which will be right around Easter, just like PDJT hoped. That would be epic.
So once again conservatives are right to see COVID 19 with a ton of perspective, and liberals are wrong for calling for the end of the world.
That is why I am seething with anger over how this has been reported in the media and how “experts” have us ripping our clothes and sitting in ashes. It likely won’t affect my family personally now that it appears to be peaking soon, but has affected many around us, losing jobs or hours of work.
We still don’t know the total number of COVID-19 infectees. If we did, then we would know how many people get over it with mild symptoms.
so-called death “rates” are nothing but wild ass guesses at this point, because general population testing has been more or less random ...
current ESTIMATES of mortality and morbidity RATES are practically meaningless because testing has not been applied to the general population, and the real rates won’t truly be known until a reliable and inexpensive finger-prick test for IGM/IGG is applied to at least tens of thousands of people in a manner controlled by a pre-established methodology designed to produce a statistically valid outcome ...
Clearly the driver for an individual.
In the interests of other individuals, more testing is currently indicated.
My vehicles in the 70’s didn’t have airbags or a sophisticated structural crash energy management design.
[Nor could they cruise at 85 in comfort and control...]
could someone point me to a site that lists up to date info, inclulding graphs....I just don't trust worldometer...seems their numbers jump all over the place...thx in advance..
sorry to hear about your niece...hope she is okay....
but you're right ...many people have probably been exposed, had the virus, never got tested...happily, we have a very good recovery rate...
along with smoking cigs and smoking weed, I would think vaping would not be ideal either....
isn't it amazing how we had several weeks of a media blitz about young people becoming so sick with vaping and all this agony over it and legislation and suddenly, its off the radar...that and impeachment, opioid abuse,kids in cages, etc....poof!
I remember seeing a sign hanging in the office area of the gun range Dad took me to back in the late '50s...
"At 40 MPH, you steer a car -
at 80 MPH, you aim it."
My point is, that there a re a lot of risks we are fine with taking for convenience - 40K die every year in car mishaps and a couple million have some sort of permanent damage.My wife and I take precautions and think everyone should...we just think the abuse of force is not a good thing.
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