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86% of people with coronavirus are walking around undetected, study says
nypost ^ | 03/17/2020 | Jackie Salo

Posted on 03/17/2020 10:02:47 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27

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To: MarineMom613

Doesn’t she have access to wipes?


61 posted on 03/17/2020 10:52:24 AM PDT by HollyB
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To: tiki

“ how many will die w/o extreme medical intervention and we lack the capacity to care for millions if millions require it.”

That’s what this is all about.


62 posted on 03/17/2020 10:54:43 AM PDT by HollyB
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To: Hot Tabasco

>>If any were hospitalized per your question, local media would be all over it.<<

Considering how strong the HIPPA law is, I don’t think you can be so sure of that.


63 posted on 03/17/2020 10:55:19 AM PDT by Norseman (Defund the Left....completely!)
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To: ChicagoConservative27
Six of every seven cases – 86% — were not reported in China before travel restrictions were implemented, driving the spread of the virus, according to a study Monday in the journal Science.

Using computer modeling, researchers tracked infections before and after the Chinese city of Wuhan’s travel ban.

Was the source of these statistics CHINA?

If so, then G I G O

64 posted on 03/17/2020 10:58:49 AM PDT by Roccus (Prima di ogni altra cosa, siate armati!)
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To: CodeToad

Which is exactly what the CDC data on CONFIRMED flu vs COVID cases describes.

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3825370/posts


65 posted on 03/17/2020 11:01:09 AM PDT by tatown
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To: dfwgator

>>I look at the live webcams from Wuhan, it doesn’t look like they are “back to business” to me.<<

Interesting, and I have no trouble believing that to be the case because I think their reported numbers of cases and deaths are complete bunk. I also think they probably kicked out the U.S. press out of the country because they need to get people back in the factories—one way or another.

By the way, I hope I’m wrong about their numbers because they are a source of optimism that the Wuhan Virus can be contained. I just don’t think it’s very likely.


66 posted on 03/17/2020 11:03:15 AM PDT by Norseman (Defund the Left....completely!)
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To: Mopp4
If it's undetected, then how do they know this number ?

That's the million dollar question, isn't it? Looks to me like the number was pretty much pulled out of thin air.

67 posted on 03/17/2020 11:03:24 AM PDT by exDemMom (Current visual of the hole the US continues to dig itself into: http://www.usdebtclock.org)
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To: RayChuang88

Then anyone under 50 better stay the hell off my property.

That includes census takers and any other government worker, especially LEO.


68 posted on 03/17/2020 11:03:27 AM PDT by Roccus (Prima di ogni altra cosa, siate armati!)
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To: JonPreston
Same as the seasonal flu, right?

With this 86% stealth figure, then the death rate further approaches the flu.

69 posted on 03/17/2020 11:07:36 AM PDT by FreeReign
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To: Leep
14% are known to be infected.
14% = 4,200 since that is the number of known infected
6 x 14 = 84 ( +/- 2)
Therefore 6 x 4,200 is the total of undetected infected
walking around? TOTAL = 25,000 ?


That's close to what my cross multiplication gives me. I come up with 30k in total.

I might be rusty though:

ratio 4200 to .14 = x to .86
4200 / .14 = x / .86
4200 x .86 = 3612
3612 / .14 = 25800 (comprises the 86% undetected)
25800 (undetected) + 4200 (detected) = 30,000 total


is that right?
70 posted on 03/17/2020 11:12:53 AM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Probably true, not because it is so contagious, but because it has been here considerably longer than the official line says it has. Because of his symptoms, I believe my oldest son had it right before Christmas. He was treated for flu, but the flu test came up negative. I lived around him the whole time he had it and I never got sick (got married and moved out since).


71 posted on 03/17/2020 11:16:43 AM PDT by RatRipper
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To: alternatives?

It’s actually 87% of the people we don’t know about.


72 posted on 03/17/2020 11:16:48 AM PDT by ManHunter (You can run, but you'll only die tired... Army snipers: Reach out and touch someone)
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To: Kazan
Can the alarmist here now stop claiming the death rate in China is 3.4%

I'm in no way saying that any of this is correct. But I am thinking about this with as open a mind as possible.

If the death rate in China is reported at 3.4%, but we hypothetically assume that this is only based on 14% of cases being detected. Then we could roughly multiply 3.4% by 14% and get a death rate of .476% right?
73 posted on 03/17/2020 11:17:52 AM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: Oklahoma
If this is true that means the death rate is much lower than currently calculated.

Yup. We'll see if anyone actually attempts to do that math.
74 posted on 03/17/2020 11:18:11 AM PDT by Antoninus ("In Washington, swamp drain you.")
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To: Leep

>>Have i got that right?<<

No, and I can’t follow your math, but you’re not far off.

If 14% of the total infected have been confirmed, the total infected is X and confirmed cases are 4,200 (your number).

So .14 times X = 4,200 is the equation to solve for X

X = 4200 divided by .14 so X = 30,000 (Total Infected)

But the 86% number is from a model, remember, and therefore quite suspect. If only 4% of total cases have been confirmed, for example, X would be 105,000. And since we’ve just really gotten started with testing in the U.S., the number of unconfirmed cases is probably quite high relative to, say, South Korea which has been testing relentlessly for weeks now.


75 posted on 03/17/2020 11:18:36 AM PDT by Norseman (Defund the Left....completely!)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

this thing is no worse than a bad flu. The only people that should be taking extraordinary precautions are the old and the infirm. The young should live their lives.


76 posted on 03/17/2020 11:19:16 AM PDT by wildcard_redneck (If the Trump Administration doesn't prosecute the coup plotters he loses the election in 2020)
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To: MarineMom613

Is she a millenial?


77 posted on 03/17/2020 11:19:28 AM PDT by Moonlighter
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To: wastoute

If 7 billion people are all 6 degrees of separation how many would have to be sick for everyone to know someone?

And that is exactly the point.
Many headlines not so many confirmed cases.

My daughter was working at Central DuPage Hospital Sunday and they were told to expect the first case on Monday.
And she is not certain if its for C D H or the larger Northwestern hospital system.

About 100 confirmed cases in Illinois, so far out of 13 Million. Zero fatalities.

Illinois has had 170 traffic fatalities so far in 2020.


78 posted on 03/17/2020 11:20:32 AM PDT by DUMBGRUNT
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To: Buckeye McFrog
I am now convinced that I had it in December. Virus with the worst respiratory symptoms I've had in a long time, which held on for weeks.

While I'm not yet convinced that I had it. I did have the same experience as you in December.
79 posted on 03/17/2020 11:21:41 AM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: mmichaels1970

Does that mean, by their estimates, that approximately 1 in 10 million? people may be walking around with the coronavirus?
We are shutting down America because 1 in 10 million might have coronavirus?


80 posted on 03/17/2020 11:22:04 AM PDT by Leep (Everyday is Trump Day!)
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