Posted on 03/12/2020 12:47:57 PM PDT by Kaslin
Well, instead of just posting a statistics equation, why don’t you fill in the variables so we can follow your logic? Parabolic, hyperbolic, exponential, or what I am seeing - linear.
It’s just getting started here. It’s more contagious than flu. It’s at least ten times deadlier than flu. Half the population will get coronavirus. That’s a million and a half dead Americans. That’s if we don’t come up with some effective treatments for this very fast. A quickly developed and distributed vaccine is wishful thinking at this point.
Any publicly traded casket makers and funeral home chains? This sounds like a windfall...
Daily increase (difference from previous day starting March 1st): 18->15->28->26->65->77->123->167->198->266->309->341 (count not finished)
This is an Nd+1 of .35 - which is a doubling rate of 2 days. It's been very consistent. If it were a linear increase - the daily increase would go up by 100 every day - or some other consistent number. It isn't - this is a logarithmic increase. That is very clear in the data. It is very clear it is a .35 multiple (with a .05 margin of error).
So - go grab a calculator - and do some simple math: Take 1670 (the current number of cases) and multiply it by 1.3 (the low Nd+1) or heck - make it 1.2 for all I care - and do that 30 times.
That is your number of cases in one month with ZERO mitigations - no closures - nothing. That is math. That is science. Pure and simple.
Rush isn’t helping this at all...he’s the main mouth for discounting it. His comments about Covid haven’t been useful at all...sorta makes it seem like Trump repeats some of Rush’s nonsense.
If I haven’t been tested, how do you know whether I have it or not? I have had a runny nose and sore throat for a week. Am I just non-symptomatic? I am sure there are millions who fall into that category. Tom Hanks and his wife for one. Cold symptoms.
You tell me where the problem is?
+++++
Call me back in a couple of months. Wildfires start out very small. But if they double in size ever 2-3 days for months you will have an uncontrollable fire on your hands.
If we could hold the virus at the infection level it is currently at your analysis would be correct. Unfortunately we cannot. The measures Trump is putting in place are only intended to slow it down and to keep the peak number of infections as low as possible.
In 2009 we had 60,000,000 infections of Swine Flu in the U.S. That is not a typo, 60 million. In that case the fatality rate was very low. I have read there were between 12,000 and 18,000 deaths.
Get out you calculator and multiply 60,000,000 times 1%. You would get 600,000 deaths. And right now the death rate looks much higher but the experts tell us they expect something like 1% in the long run. And these deaths would come to pass over a period of a few months. It would be overwhelming.
And at the rate we are going 60,000,000 is not out of the question. Hopefully the Trump measures will slow it way down and we will never reach that peak.
Rush is, unfortunately, wrong. He has been wrong quite a bit lately. Didn’t he tell us the the Joe Biden candidacy was dead, dead, dead?
You tell me where the problem is?
+++++
Call me back in a couple of months. Wildfires start out very small. But if they double in size ever 2-3 days for months you will have an uncontrollable fire on your hands.
If we could hold the virus at the infection level it is currently at your analysis would be correct. Unfortunately we cannot. The measures Trump is putting in place are only intended to slow it down and to keep the peak number of infections as low as possible.
In 2009 we had 60,000,000 infections of Swine Flu in the U.S. That is not a typo, 60 million. In that case the fatality rate was very low. I have read there were between 12,000 and 18,000 deaths.
Get out you calculator and multiply 60,000,000 times 1%. You would get 600,000 deaths. And right now the death rate looks much higher but the experts tell us they expect something like 1% in the long run. And these deaths would come to pass over a period of a few months. It would be overwhelming.
And at the rate we are going 60,000,000 is not out of the question. Hopefully the Trump measures will slow it way down and we will never reach that peak.
Rush is, unfortunately, wrong. He has been wrong quite a bit lately. Didn’t he tell us the the Joe Biden candidacy was dead, dead, dead?
You tell me where the problem is?
+++++
Call me back in a couple of months. Wildfires start out very small. But if they double in size ever 2-3 days for months you will have an uncontrollable fire on your hands.
If we could hold the virus at the infection level it is currently at your analysis would be correct. Unfortunately we cannot. The measures Trump is putting in place are only intended to slow it down and to keep the peak number of infections as low as possible.
In 2009 we had 60,000,000 infections of Swine Flu in the U.S. That is not a typo, 60 million. In that case the fatality rate was very low. I have read there were between 12,000 and 18,000 deaths.
Get out you calculator and multiply 60,000,000 times 1%. You would get 600,000 deaths. And right now the death rate looks much higher but the experts tell us they expect something like 1% in the long run. And these deaths would come to pass over a period of a few months. It would be overwhelming.
And at the rate we are going 60,000,000 is not out of the question. Hopefully the Trump measures will slow it way down and we will never reach that peak.
Rush is, unfortunately, wrong. He has been wrong quite a bit lately. Didn’t he tell us the the Joe Biden candidacy was dead, dead, dead?
Good post! To many people focusing on raw death numbers...more important are the spread rate and “seriousness” (hospitalization/intubation/ventilation) stats of COVID-19.
Reads as though you are a prime candidate for a virus test.
Have you made arrangements to do that.
This too shall pass.
When you look at ‘resolved’ cases vs. deaths you’re only seeing numbers for people who were sick enough to be hospitalized.
Stay tuned - you have two weeks. Go circle it on your calendar (give me a day or two either side). Have a good day.
But you’re not following the rules. Some people here think it is important to get the numbers right.
Now you are messing up the whole plan.
If you are, and you probably are NOT infected, then that will be one “miss” OR “cured.”
See how that works.
Okie dokie.
I guess you are right. I’ll head off to the ER tomorrow and get tested. I’ll probably catch the flu there and really die.
Crusty, you gave me a GOOD LAUGH.
Thank you very much.
STAY OUT OF THAT ER!
How about auto deaths, average 200 per day killed, and average 6000 (thousand) a day (day) seriously injured, many if not majority with lifelong debilitation as a result.
We do not stop the US economy, or the world, for it. Why not?
Same question for every single pandemic, you know the list.
Is this one different because it is so Contagious? Fatal?
Gee, I didn’t realize you held me in such high esteem. I’m flattered
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.