Posted on 02/26/2020 6:43:15 PM PST by blam
I read that somewhere online, too, but cannot find it now.
It is NOT more contagious than the flu virus or common cold virus. Simply is not true. The “rapid” spread is in the first place in the Far East in hygeine situations that are only worse in deep Africa or India,orsay....Haiti (the clinton’s little cash wallow)
The mortality rate cited is NOT the rate in developed Western countries— it is the rate described in China. China,with open festering street creeks of filth, and corrupt lying chi-coms,who sex tour into Thailand from Wuhan.
Thanks for your post.
jstolzen is not doing this, but there are a group of FReepers that are doing fear mongering on the COVID-19 threads.
Earlier this week, one suggested that people still had 3 hours to make it to a store, ostensibly to buy items before, before Wall Street “panic buying”starts and the stores would run out of items.
Disgusting.
Take reasonable steps to prepare. Understand that because China supplies so much to the US, that there are going to be supply shortages. But don’t listen to the fear mongers.
SOUNDS about right though most prepper
sites would include more items. Hygiene needs male & female, bleach, TP, basic first aid, personal meds, that 1 is iffy depending on what you take. Pets supplies.
Not as extensive as for EMP or SOLAR FLARE which impacts the electric grid and anything with chips.
How to get rats to jump out the ship-— micro smoke and electromagnetic spectrum vibrations— useful today or lure them into an onboard freezer, and/or the much nastier warfarin bait, and some.... water (then you have to locate where they have died, or shortly will smell them...everywhere).
So- smoke/electro them out— and then stand on the dock with several spotters and marksmen, and pick them off with a 22LR. How US Navy used to handle the wharf rats on their hawsers trying to come on their ships— tied to the dockyards in Vladivostok (end of WWII). Dad said they were the size of small cats— really, ugh.
Hygiene needs male & female, check
Bleach, check
TP, check
Basic first aid, check
Personal meds, check
Pets supplies, no pet would put up with me
So, according to studies this corona virus is more transmissible than the flu, and there's currently no vaccine. Antiviral drugs may help, but that's not yet certain.
What is known is that with a 70,000+ case history, mortality in China is 2.3%. Let's say that's reduced to half in the US, or 1.2%. That would mean that if 100,000,000 Americans contracted it (~1/3 of the population), we could expect 1.2 million deaths.
Also bear in mind that COVID-19 seems to be more incapacitating than flu, which means more effect on the economy.
Let's hope it doesn't spread too much, and that we find a vaccine fast. It's nothing to take lightly!
Not true. The mechanics of disease spread are well understood. We know this is highly infectious (allegedly more so than flu) and transmitted by air.
It's not exactly wild speculation to think it will spread worse than flu. We may initially stop it in the US, but Mexico will be a hotbed and it will easily spill over from there.
The only hope to really control it at this point is a vaccine, from what I know.
Cruise ship study suggests R0 of 2.28http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate
Seasonal flu has an R0 that hovers around 1.3https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/01/how-fast-and-far-will-new-coronavirus-spread/605632/
Bear in mind that there's a vaccine for seasonal flu, and that's one reason its R0 is lower. Still millions catch it.
I’m saying it’s a flu. I’m saying the media are whupping folks up for their agenda. I’m not buying it.
I think something got lost in translation. I agree we may well know and so far it’s not looking good. I responded to the poster who was making a ridiculous assertion/comparison. He was comparing regular flu deaths in the USA to COVID-19. As you know of course, COVID hasn’t become widespread here so it is foolish to compare the mortality rates of the two as he did. Yes, the regular flu has killed far more... so far ... but perhaps only because so few have been exposed to COVID-19. If/when COVID-19 becomes as widespread (if not more so) than the regular flu, far more could die from it based on stats from other countries.
Fly to China and test your theory.
LOL!!!
Oh shit, I better get over to the Beer Warehouse ASAP!
And you're an infectious disease specialist I take it?
I ignore the stats on this thing as I don't trust China as far as I can throw the whole country, to tell the truth, but I AM watching how they are handling it and that is far more telling about the seriousness of this virus.
Nor am I advocating anyone panic, however, anyone who is not prepared for any type of emergency is a fool, plain and simple.
We take too much for granted in this country. Ours is a nation of spoiled brats made by instant gratification who pitch a fit if they don't get what they want, how they want it, when they want it.
I don't see a good chunk of them doing well in a real emergency and I plan on being able to stay out of their way.
Understanding R0 factors:
Three possibilities exist for the potential spread or decline of a disease, depending on its R0 value:
If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will spread between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.
According to a review article published in BMC Medicine, the R0 value of the 1918 pandemic was estimated to be between 1.4 and 2.8. But when the swine flu, or H1N1 virus, came back in 2009, its R0 value was between 1.4 and 1.6, report researchers in the journal Science.
Metmom, no, nor did I say I was an expert. Why the vitriol?
I did see this post from a virologist - “The media are idiots. I have heard such BS over this disease, it’s almost become a joke. Before I was a white haired old geezer on a pension, I was a manager of medical laboratories. Virology is just one of many laboratory sciences in which I was trained. Corona virus is a common virus that has been around since the dawn of time. Some years, it becomes more virulent, the same as the flu virus does. Next season, Corona Virus will be back to causing the sniffles. It’s an RNA virus so it is constantly changing.”
Also I saw that Hong Kong ports are / will be soon up and running again after a hiatus due to the Lunar New Year/ people being not allowed to return. There is a huge backlog at the port; my friend’s business goes through there. They have totally opened the port back up.
These things - and Rush Limbaugh’s caution that the media/ liberals are whupping people up to make the President look bad (like Katrina/ GWB) - make me doubt what I read.
Seems to be triggering a lot of vitriol. I am happy to keep my FR opinions to myself, but I thought this was a discussion sort of site. Perhaps it has changed.
My sister just moved to NH. We’ll have to depart VT someday soon - it will be hard, since my family has been here since before we became the 14th state in 1791.
Not vitriol.
But if you’re going to make blanket statements as if you’re en expert, don’t be surprised if someone calls you on it.
I said I THINK it is just a flu. Those are called opinions.
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