The Coronavirus Is a Stress Test for Xi Jinping: Can China Control an Epidemic From the Top Down?

Foreign Affairs ^ | 02/11/2020 | By Elizabeth Economy

[SeekAndFind]

On February 4, Cui Tiankai, China’s ambassador to the United States, prepared to address an audience of students, scholars, and businesspeople in San Diego, California. Before the ambassador could speak, a young Chinese man stood up and yelled, “Xi Jinping, step down!” Security quickly whisked the man away, and the event went on.

A handful of similar calls for the resignation of Chinese President Xi Jinping have popped up on the Chinese Web in recent weeks, from citizens who accuse the country’s leadership of bungling the state’s response to the deadly coronavirus that has spread throughout the country. Like the protester in San Diego these critical posts have disappeared almost immediately.

The coronavirus outbreak is on track to become the worst humanitarian and economic crisis of Xi’s tenure, but the Chinese president is certainly not likely to resign. In fact, Xi has spent seven years in power building a political system designed to withstand just such a crisis. He has centralized authority in his own hands, enhanced top-down state control, limited the free flow of information within and across the country’s borders, and adopted an assertive foreign policy designed to cajole and coerce other countries into doing as China says.

For now, at least, the epidemic has brought into sharp relief the extent of Xi’s power. But the very existence of the crisis points to gaping contradictions and weaknesses at the heart of his regime. The longer Beijing takes to contain the virus, the wider and more consequential those cracks will become.

CONTAIN AND CONTROL

After initially dragging its feet, Beijing has undertaken a herculean effort to contain the coronavirus. The Chinese Communist Party has effectively quarantined entire provinces with a total population exceeding 100 million. It has ordered factories that manufacture face masks into overdrive.

[Buckeye McFrog]

IF a virus won’t obey orders, can you have it shot?

[null and void]

Just a pop quiz, nothing to see here...

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[George from New England]

You are assuming this is a problem. ChiComs might be spending more time figuring out a way to build this into a strategic move to grab back Taiwan, et al. Maybe to reign in Hong Kong.

[TigerClaws]

Xi visited a hospital:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M64_lbikDE

[PGR88]

Xi has already cut-off the power of rival factions. He is leader of all the important committees and groups with the titles. His anti-corruption campaign was an initial purge of possible opponents. He could never have officially removed term limits on his stay as President of the National People’s Congress (and the Communist Party) unless any challengers were already out of the way.

So I don’t see him in any danger of losing power. If Xi was somehow deposed due to Coronavirus, it would mean civil war in China.

[null and void]

"Perhaps most impressive, it has constructed massive makeshift hospitals..."

Gymnasiums with 2 feet between beds, no toilets, no medical equipment, no doctors.

Does reportage get any more fawning?

"...and quarantine centers in a few short weeks."

Weld shut the doors of entire apartment complexes and call them quarantine centers.

I guess reportage does get more fawning after all!

Oh, BTW it's 400 million under quarantine, not 100 million.

Just an ordinary flu, folks, nothing to see here.

And when they tell you to take a shower, verify they shower room has floor drains, the old German design they copied didn't...

[VAFreedom]

this is the best chance for taiwan to take china back.... except it would be a Pyrrhic victory. but seriously

i want china ccp to fail, and if the regular Chinese people do not raise up now... it might be beyond recovery

[NobleFree]

On the other hand, some good stuff further down the page:

‘Xi’s system of governance has protected him from significant political fallout from the epidemic but has also created the very conditions that allowed the virus to spread so fast in the first place. Because the Chinese state apparatus is so centralized, information pools around bottlenecks and often fails to reach those who need it most. The mayor of Wuhan noted in a televised interview in late January that he passed information regarding the coronavirus to the relevant authorities early on, but he was not authorized to release that information to the public. [...]

‘Beijing remains as committed to stemming the free flow of information as it is determined to fight the actual virus, even when those priorities are in clear conflict. Officials have repeatedly threatened those who spread unauthorized information, leaving the media, nongovernmental organizations, and individual citizens little space to provide real-time feedback and on-the-ground updates. In the absence of reliable and timely information, Chinese people are left to organize on their own, creating maps that track the virus’ path and developing trusted platforms for citizens to access verified information. Online, some citizens engage in fierce debates over how to make sense of the contradictory information about the virus and the government’s response. The distribution of medical supplies and financial support, too, has suffered as a result of Beijing’s control complex. Officials have designated only a few central government–supported charity organizations to receive and distribute public donations. Understaffed and overwhelmed, the distribution centers have become yet another target of public ire for their inability to deliver the donations to hospitals and medical workers in desperate need of supplies.

‘Equally troubling, Beijing’s determination to control the flow of information between China and the rest of the world led it to reject several offers by the international community to send infectious disease experts to help fight the virus’s spread; and even after finally accepting an offer of help from the WHO on January 28, it took Beijing nearly two weeks to make good on the deal. Such behavior threatens the welfare of not only Chinese citizens but also people around the world.’

[pepsionice]

If you go back to 1917-1918....the way that the US Army had containment quarters laid out and the no-problem strategy, it simply contained to spread. This is almost a carbon copy of that era.

[Phil DiBasquette]

Can I tell you after all their malfeasance it
wouldn’t upset me ?

[DannyTN]

Viruses are at the top of the food chain.

China is relaxing restrictions on cities with factories and ordering the factories back to work. Meanwhile they are increasing restrictions on cities that don’t have factories.

That means that they have given up trying to restrict the spread in cities with factories. They have consigned themselves to get the factories going again, even if it spreads the virus and a percent of the workers die as a result.

[Vermont Lt]

Xi is not going to step down. Unless you mean “step down on the necks” of his people.

[sanjuanbob]

They have consigned themselves to get the factories going again, even if it spreads the virus and a percent of the workers die as a result.

And a percent of the consumers die as a result.
Footnote...many common meds come from China.

[Truthoverpower]

Imagine living in the time of the black plague back in the 13 and 1400s were people had no idea about the vector causes of disease

[grumpygresh]

Maybe he’ll deploy healthy Chinese super spreaders.

[SeekAndFind]

HERE ARE SOME NUMBERS TO CONSIDER REGARDING CHINA:

The economy was bad before with just 6% reported growth (down from a customary 9% - 10% clip), but now it stands to get very bad, with quarterly forecast cut to 4.5% (a 25% drop on the quarter), which in China is a perfect condition for revolt. Here's a story about China's 1Q smartphone sales being cut in half. Here's another from Bloomberg saying two thirds of China's economy is now idled, and oil consumption has tumbled 20%. 

[ETCM]

Just an ordinary flu, folks, nothing to see here.

Sheesh, this is extremely minor compared to influenza. It's not even a cold! The Lancet published a study a few years back that showed China loses about 88,000 every year to the Flu. I think I'll book a quick trip to China and avoid the crowds!