CDC is monitoring 110 possible coronavirus cases across 26 states in US

CNBC ^ | Mon, Jan 27 202011:46 AM ESTUpdated 6 min ago | Berkeley Lovelace Jr.

[School of Rational Thought]

That is racist!

[ProtectOurFreedom]

If you contract 2019-nCoV, the odds are good you won’t remember anything at all.

[Little Pig]

Is there a list anywhere of the 26 states?

[Tench_Coxe]

The radio news just today reported that 5 cases number.

[trisham]

I’m taking my vitamins!

[DoodleBob]

While we're on the topic of presenting clear information and not hype, specifically around R₀, a study is making the rounds and people are claiming it says every infected person will infect 2.6 more people (or, technically, R₀=2.6), and we're all gonna die etc.

First, this is from "WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, UK... This is an extended version of an analysis previously shared with WHO, governments and academic networks between 22/1/20 - 24/1/20. "

In other words, this is from an academic group that collaborates with WHO, not WHO. Further, if you check out the bona fides of the signatories, they are primarily mathematicians and statisticians, not medical doctors. Indeed, as I'll show shortly, this paper is pure math/data science/simulations.

Secondarily, the report does not say every person in China with the contravirus will infect 2.6 newbies. Quoting directly from the PDF:

We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18th January 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories.

Thus, this is a mathematical ESTIMATE based on PRIOR ESTIMATES and COMPUTATIONAL MODELING. Now, there is always a place for math and statistics. But the methods they're employing here are in-line with what's brandished by "climate change scientists." Color me skeptical.

But EVEN IF we agree with their methods and math, the data in their table show that their estimated R₀ actually ranges from 0.9 to 3.5 depending upon there being 1000 or 4000 cases by Jan 18. That is a LOT of variation.

In fact, often times in the midst of a pandemic, R₀ can't be directly calculated. It has to be estimated, and those estimates (as seen above) are subject to the same errors that infect mankind whenever panic or insouciance sets in.

Of course we should not ignore this situation. It's worth monitoring and taking some action like protecting the citizens of America. But we shouldn't act like these guys...

[DouglasKC]

It’s heeeeerrrreeee......

[Zhang Fei]

[I had the flu a year ago and was delerious for three days, and quite sick for two weeks. My husband almost called an ambulance. I have no memory of those three days. I can’t imagine having a flu that is worse, so I hope I don’t get this one.]

---

I had the flu when I was young and healthy. I was laid low for a week. My bones hurt.

The death rate for this bug is 3%, if Chinese stats are accurate. It’s 0.17% for the flu. That’s another way of saying that this bug is 17x as deadly in China as the flu stateside, for people who get infected.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

On top of the higher fatality rate per infection, what’s bad about this bug is the fact that it may be far more infectious than the flu. So we need to pay attention to developments so we can weigh what personal measures we might need to take to lower the risk of getting infected.

[RummyChick]

Based on what I am seeing, if you take interferons for a medical condition you need to be aware of the implications as it relates to the cytokine storm that has been seen in the plasma of those who get this

Don’t stop taking your meds. Just be alert.

Same would hold true with the flu...as it can cause a cytokine storm.

[SteelCowboy]

One of these years one of these viruses is going to kill 20% of the planet.

You think our "leaders" care? The entire government are nothing but a bunch of cheap whores paid for by the global business elite. They will make a profit off you if you live or die. In actuality I think they would prefer a pandemic to occur rather than to prevent one, chaos invites authoritarian measures, which once invoked, will not likely be rolled back. Every action by the Uniparty and the Democrats in particular reveals that they revel in chaos, division, discord. We have no recourse to government here. We stand alone. Perhaps we can get Trump to act in our interest, but I an doubtful. Disaster preparedness is something we all have the power to do, take steps now.

[deadrock]

What? Use common sense? That would be a first.

[reed13k]

Historically quarantine has never prevented spread - it only slows it down to allow resources to be brought on line. The best attempt was when Venice required ships to stay at anchor for 40 days, even that wasn’t 100%.

[cornfedcowboy]

Exactly! I am happy to taske directions from the WHO anytime! As long as I get good seats to their shows. Roger Daltry looks great for his age too.

[cornfedcowboy]

It will be interesting just how much m ore we will know about this virus in only a week or two.

[trisham]

Thanks, RummyChick!

[SteelCowboy]

Historically quarantine has never prevented spread

History is replete with examples of quarantines working. A very cursory look into that would make that clear to you. Please do not post misinformation.

[Jamestown1630]

'They KNOW'.

This is what worries me. Communist countries don't lock down entire cities and millions of people in front of the whole world, admitting to a 'grave' situation, unless it's very serious.

[RummyChick]

𝙳𝚊𝚗𝚒𝚎𝚕 𝙲𝚛𝚞𝚣 @Dancruz__16 · #coronavirus is in Fresno. 2 people have been confirmed @ 1am this morning.

[trisham]

Agreed. It’s a good thing to read these threads to learn as much as possible about preventing infection, especially for those of us who are older.

[RummyChick]

. – The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) announced Monday morning that it will be sending kits to test for the 2019 novel coronavirus to “priority states,” though officials didn’t specify which states.

https://www.kxxv.com/news/national/cdc-sending-coronavirus-testing-kits-to-priority-states-as-cases-increase-in-us