the rcp poll average indeed shows biden ahead in NH
but bidn is still ahead in every other early primary state, in some cases very substantially ahead, which matters because all Dem primaries/caucuses allocate delegates proportional to the vote ...
If Bernie wins Iowa & NH and loses the nomination his voters will be quite angry. It’ll be especially fun to see the media go very negative on Bernie when then sense this is real. That will anger his supporters even more.