Five thirty eight. Nate Silver.
Toilet paper has more utility.
And Ipsos. Can’t leave them out. :-)
He understands confirmation bias much better than polling, stays in business by telling people what they want to believe.
Nate Silver started out on TV News on Tuesday, November 8th, 2016, stating that five thirty eight.com showed Hillary winning the election that day with a 95% chance.
He rode this predication for months. As the evening wore on, he showed her chances going down, down, down, until, Trump won.
He never was able to explain how he got it so wrong and hasn’t changed any of his methodology since.
So WHATEVER this guy’s poll shows today, consider that Tuesday in 2016.
You’ll need a salt mine, not just a grain.