Igor Nikolaevich Panarin is a Russian professor and political scientist. He is best known for predicting in 1998 that the United States would disintegrate within the next few years.
In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow analysts at FAPSI, Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the US into 6 parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2008), following a civil war triggered by mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation. He forecast financial and demographic changes provoking a political crisis in which wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government, effectively seceding from the Union, leading to social unrest, civil war, national division, and intervention of foreign powers.
Panarin sees the task of the world elite as not letting the USA follow the Yugoslavian model of disintegration; it is desirable that it follows the Czechoslovakian model of disintegration so that everything goes calmly and peacefully.
Explaining his theory in an interview with Izvestia, Panarin stated that "The U.S. dollar isn't secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche; this is a pyramid, which has to collapse. ... Dissatisfaction is growing, and it is only being held back at the moment by the elections, and the hope [that President-elect Barack Obama] can work miracles. But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
] In an interview with The Wall Street Journal in DEC 2008, Panarin said: "There's a 55–45% chance right now that disintegration will occur. ... One could rejoice in that process ... But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario – for Russia. Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.
In March 2009, Panarin gave a speech at the Diplomatic Academy in which he stated that "There is a high probability that the collapse of the United States will occur by 2010" and predicted that Russia and China, which will soon become economic superpowers, will need to collaborate to rebuild the world economy with a new currency once the United States (and the U.S. dollar) cease to exist.
This hypothesis gained world attention a decade after its initial announcement due to the 2008 financial crisis and has been widely criticised since.
In October 2011, Panarin stated that Occupy Wall Street protests have "highlighted the ever-deepening split with America's ruling elite." He also cited several American professors and analysts who he claims support his view that the United States will soon collapse, including Gerald Celente, Stephen F. Cohen, and Thomas W. Chittum.