Will some African Americans who can’t bring themselves to vote Republican stay home? The answer is a clear resounding YES!! In 2016 Trump won Michigan purely on the strength of African Americans in Detroit’s Wayne County staying home. He won by the state by just 13,000 votes.
The fall off of voters from 2012 to 2016 in Wayne County, which is 38% African American with most living in Detroit, was 37,364. More than enough for Clinton to have won a close election if just half of these ALWAYS VOTE DEMOCRAT voters turned out; but they didn’t. When people or groups change parties especially from Democrat to Republican it is not uncommon for them to sit out the first election. Now that Trump has delivered for African Americans it is not a stretch to say he will get 15 to 18% of that vote and further benefit from a similar stay home group. In the zero sum game the Democrats themselves have created, that 15 to 18% will come directly out of the Democrat column. Game over.
Precisely. In FL, enough blacks stayed home for Trump to win. The margin of victory was almost exactly the 3% who stayed home.