Assad has played a blinder in this war. He is going to win, and Russia and Iran’s standing and influence in the Middle East is going to rise exponentially.
I’m not seeing that. Iran is definitely their own side in this; the Syrian/Russian team kills them whenever they find Iranians, the YPG does the same and I believe the Turks do too.
“Russia and Iran’s standing and influence in the Middle East is going to rise exponentially.”
That’s the neocon argument. They believe that standing and influence rise as a result of humanitarian work. So naive.
In that region humanitarian work only makes you look weak. Cutting the Kurds loose when they are no longer needed is the power move here.
“He is going to win, and Russia and Iran’s standing and influence in the Middle East is going to rise exponentially.”
The set of alliances in Syria are among the most bizarre in history. Russia allows Israel to bomb Hezbollah and Iran in Syria. Both are Russia’s allies and arguably, Russia could stop or hinder Israel, but they don’t. Turkey has one of the largest militaries in the world and Russia needs Turkey’s cooperation to maintain its income from oil. So, will Russia come to the aid of Assad’s tiny and tapped-out military against Turkey? Iran is really no-one’s ally and everybody over there knows it. Iran’s goal is to recreate the Ottoman Empire but with them at its head. Incidentally, that is Turkey’s goal as well. And, then, there are all the Shia’s, Turkmen, Alawites and other tribes and sects in the region, all fighting for power over the others. Having “influence” in that area means you have the most guns on the ground. We had about 1 US soldier per every ten miles of the Turkish/Syrian border. In terms of the area we had little influence beyond paying Kurds to support our goals. To maintain “influence” would mean using US air power, which, is based at Incirlik, Turkey. (My, wouldn’t THAT be awkward?)
Assad is known to be the big loser in this. Iran bosses him and uses the Alawites as cannon fodder to fight Israel, while Russia is going to be there permanently to tell him what to do,
Just get our b 61 s out of turkey pronto. Turkey has no business in any part of Syria. Syria is a rusky client state. Unless erdogen has a deal with Putin over this incursion it will be dangerous for us through NATO ENTANGLEMENT. Russia has always wanted a dardonneles free passage. My guess is this can push NATO and us out because turkey and Russia have a behind the scenes arrangement. Turkey did a deal with Putin recently over the S 300 I believe over our objection. That is a strong indicator to me of shifting sands in that area.