Sigh. Such crap.
China is aging almost as fast as Japan. This is a MAJOR problem for them. Their energy supplies are in the south, but the ChiCom gubment is in the north. Major problem. But even then, their energy isn’t remotely close to supporting growth. So they must import from the ME.
When the balloon goes up in the ME (only a matter of time between SA/Iran, or Iran/someone else there) we won’t be involved, but the ChiComs will be cut off of their oil
All their vaunted naval growth faces a grim reality: they are totally boxed in by a string of island nations ALL hostile to them with land based missiles, land based air, and their own navies. Japan’s is already better and bigger than China’s. And all of this is backed up in a second ring of the US Pacific fleet.
Third, the capitalist growth requires some degree of democracy, as the Soviet Union learned. It is simply incompatible with top-down planning.
Fourth, you think the US debt is bad? China’s debt is off the charts, and it’s estimated that fully 90% of it is completely toxic. It cannot be unloaded or refinanced.
Fifth, Trump’s trade war is breaking them, day by day. Samsung pulled out today. When China starts to face joblessness combined with a declining work force that (in market situations would drive prices way up), there will be a massive crackdown.
Lastly, EVERYONE who looks at China agrees that the growth rates were way overblown, that they have collapsed to under or near ours.
I suggest Patsy read Peter Zeihan or George Friedman, especialy Zeihan who is a specialist in oil and energy, which THEY DON’T HAVE.
“Fifth, Trumps trade war is breaking them, day by day. Samsung pulled out today. When China starts to face joblessness combined with a declining work force that (in market situations would drive prices way up), there will be a massive crackdown.”
Samsung? Do you have further news on this? I am curious on how the tech companies are negotiating the decades of stupidity of doing business there...