Who did the smoke signals say the Republican candidate would be in September of 2015?
"Smoke signals" is a good analogy, because in 2015 the smoke and mirrors were suggesting that Jeb Bush had it all locked up due to his securing of the majority of Big Donors, drying up the funding for anybody else.
This was simply a "process" assumption that didn't take into account his low-energy no-conflict style, his soft attitudes on immigration, and "Bush fatigue."
-PJ