Posted on 09/12/2019 6:41:44 AM PDT by centurion316
Last week the Democrats were touting the special election in North Carolina’s 9th District as the first major contest of the 2020 cycle, and the polls indicated that Democrat Dan McCready might win what should be a pretty safe GOP seat. By Wednesday morning, after Republican Dan Bishop had won, their focus had shifted and much commentary was devoted to his “thin margin of victory.” Little notice was taken of certain voting patterns that should frighten the Democrats. Specifically, McCready did far worse than expected in every county but one, and many of those counties are dominated by minority voters.
The most unnerving example, from the Democratic perspective, is rural Robeson County. The ethnic makeup of this county is as follows: Native American (38.6%), White (25.7%), Black (24%), Hispanic (8.52%), Two or More Races (2.15%), Asian (0.66%), Other (0.275%). On Tuesday the Democrat received a fraction of the votes he received in 2018, running for the same seat. Ryan Matsumoto of Inside Elections provides the gory details: “McCready won Robeson County by only 1.11 points, a MASSIVE decrease from his 15.31 point margin last November.” In 2012, Obama carried Robeson by 17 points.
This is a county of about 143,000, and 74 percent of these folks are clearly not the racist rednecks the Democrats would have us believe make up most of the Trump/GOP base. The shift away from McCready was the result of disenchantment among minority voters with the Democrat. Moreover, though Robeson was the most obvious, it was by no means the only ethnically diverse county whose voters “walked away.” Nearly 60 percent of Cumberland County’s approximately 333,000 residents are Black, Hispanic, or a member of some other minority group. McCready won it in 2018. Dan Bishop won Cumberland on Tuesday.
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
The ethnic makeup of this county is as follows:
<><> Native American (38.6%),
<><> White (25.7%),
<><> Black (24%), Hispanic (8.52%),
<><> Two or More Races (2.15%),
<><> Asian (0.66%),
<><> Other (0.275%).
On Tuesday the Democrat received a fraction of the votes he received in 2018, running for the same seat.
Ryan Matsumoto of Inside Elections provides the gory details: “McCready won Robeson County by only 1.11 points,
a MASSIVE decrease from his 15.31 point margin last November.” In 2012, Obama carried Robeson by 17 points.
Maybe ... or maybe they just didn't vote in a one-off special election with no non-white candidate anywhere on the ballot. That doesn't mean they won't vote solidly Democrat, as they generally do, on a regular Election Day.
Iirc, turnout was in the range of 38% across the district, which includes areas that had other contests, such as city council primaries, on the ballot. Data on turnout by county might reveal some patterns.
Me thinks Mr. Catron must have been listening to ElRushbo. Rush went into this in some detail during his show yesterday. This column reads as if it were taken from Rush’s online transcript.
The Democrat was apparently, by all reports, of moderate posture, and on a personal basis was likable and appeared reasonably knowledgeable, and in fact had greater appeal than the Republican.
The presence of Trump and Pence spelled the difference.
Republicans, if you want to win, tie your wagon to the star that is Donald Trump.
I am concerned about the Trump national campaign and how they are working with the national party. I do not trust Ronna Romney has what it takes to have ground game in individual states and districts.
Of course, I’m happy about the outcome and encouraged with the apparent trend...however...as I posted on another site that was touting the opposite message (R’s are in trouble, blah, blah, blah), I don’t think comparisons can be made between general election years, or even mid-term elections vs. a one-off special election. I’ve heard this election result spun and drilled down to the nth degree so much, on both sides, I don’t know what to believe. I think this is (as Rush likes to say) very much “inside baseball” type analysis and really doesn’t mean anything till 2020 election day. GOTV....period.
I believe there is a sizable contingent of GOP leaders and strategists who absolutely resent Donald Trump’s appeal to working-class Americans of all races, but especially among minorities.
Rural and suburban minorities tend to be more conservative than their urban counterparts. In urban areas, minority organizations also tend to be more powerful and news media coverage is more intense.
“The shift away from McCready was the result of disenchantment among minority voters with the Democrat.”
“Rural minorities are turning their backs on the Democrat Party..”
Minorities, and even a lot of liberals, are turning away from the self-serving dim party. They’ve no successful issues on which to run expect Trump is mean to them. They put all their eggs in the impeachment basket and that failure is about to expose all the corruption they had hope to conceal.
Even issues on which we and liberals disagree, bigger government.., fake climate data.., are not being addressed seriously by democrats. If you wanted something to be done about climate stuff would you want a brain wave like AOC leading the charge?
Folks, after the Fake News Debate tonight on CNN concludes, the Democrat Party will die a bit more...politically. I mean, really, how dumb can those Democrat low lifes be?
The facts of this election stand in stark contrast with the Democrat and media narrative. Apply whatever caveats you wish, the actual results differ from what the Left have been telling us through their media surrogates. The influence of these voices are not trivial as evidenced by the willingness of many members of this forum to buy into their view of the electorate.
38% turnout could be from everyone employed now, and is just too tired after work to go to the polling place. Also they probably prefer to go out and spend some cash now, rather than waste valuable time on a politician.
By comparison, everyone BHO supported lost. *WINNING!*
A hopeful sign that Democrat Party Racepolitik is beginning to fail.
There are weak-minded people, self-centered people who care little about anyone but themselves, ignorant people, and just plain evil people.
With those exceptions I can’t, for the life of me, understand why anyone would ever vote Democrat.
I agree that the facts are in stark contrast, and I am not influenced by the voices...on either side. I generally take the approach it is not as bad as the left says it is, nor is it as good as we think it is. The political punditry makes hay off this analysis. I think this is good to know info, but we shouldn’t hang our hats on anything. One off special elections are less predictable than mid-terms and general election analysis...in my view. Bottom line is get out the vote. Case in point...Romney 2012 in Ohio...watching Karl Rove embarrass himself based on the “inside baseball” approach of what “should be” based on statistics, predictions and past elections...
The dems are going after every special election and throwing everything at them.
* * *
Yes, suspect what the Dems are desperate for is a way to “prove” that the tide is turning against Trump. But these special elections are proving just the opposite.
Isn’t it ironic. The downfall of the Dems happened right after they won the House last year.
Ever since that day, it’s all been all downhill for them. The idiot genes in the Party took over. And the flip side of “Russia, Russia, Russia” has not really started yet — though it was nice to see Mad Cow being slapped with a multi-million dollar lawsuit by OAN News. WINNING!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.