Democrats and greens outnumber republicans in Maine by about 100,000 voters almost a 10 point edge. In order to win a statewide race under this rank choice system, a republican candidate has to win the independents big time.
As of July of 2019, there are 347,000 dem registered in Maine.
There are 287,000 registered Republicans.
Dems gained 9,000 registered voters since 2016, Republicans gained 2,000. A net gain for the dems of 7,000. I’m guessing that most of these gains were from the more liberal First District in the southeastern part of the state....north Massachusetts.