Posted on 09/05/2019 11:06:55 PM PDT by NorseViking
A draft U.S. peace deal with the Taliban could result in “another Saigon” in which the Afghan government is toppled from power and its leaders executed after U.S. troops withdraw, warns a former top FBI counterterrorism agent and international security consultant.
“If we continue the negotiations only between us and between the Taliban, that is not a withdrawal — that is another Saigon,” said Ali Soufan, one of the FBI’s lead agents targeting al-Qaida before the 2001 terror attack, when the group was headquartered in Afghanistan under the protection of the Taliban. “Because, you know, we’re telling the Afghan government, we’re telling the Afghani security forces, we’re telling the Afghani army, ‘We’re out of here.’”
In April 1975, as Saigon (now Ho Chi Minh City) fell to North Vietnamese troops, U.S. personnel in the South Vietnamese capital organized a chaotic evacuation by helicopter. South Vietnamese government officials were taken captive, imprisoned, exiled or executed.
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
Few people would care, just like so many didn’t care in 1975.
Just so long as they remain comfortable is what they care about
Staying could lead to our collapse.
Well we barely make the airport
For the last plane out
As we taxied down the runway
I could hear the people shout
They said, “don’t come back here Yankee”
But if I ever do
I’ll bring more money
‘Cause all she wants to do is dance
And make romance
Never mind the heat
Comin’ off the street
She wants to party
She wants to get down
All she wants to do is
All she wants to do is dance
Although leaving this way would be another dent on US influence.
I’d say the likelihood of his prediction is about 200%. But, what are the alternatives?
15 members of the US military have died in that country fighting, what amounts to, a mafia family or Cartel. Nothing more. There is no more strategic value in fighting the Taliban, opium growers or anyone else in that place.
We either go back there, in force and make them our subjects, kick out the Chinese and take their natural resources or we pull out.
The Chinese have, or are about to, roped the Afghani’s into a debt trap. Afghani leadership is just as manipulative and greedy as any on the planet and will take the money, run and move to Dubai or Doha, before they get their heads chopped off.
It’s one or the other.
My memories of April 30, 1979 is sitting on my duffle bag in the company area of Ft. Bragg NC awaiting orders to return, orders that never came even though we promised the South Vietnamese we would if the North violated the peace accords.
I spent 19 months in the Central Highlands, losing 13 buddies and for what?
Why was our sacrifices so easily cast aside by so many?
South Vietnam lasted 3 years after the complete withdrawal of US forces, but only because the North was getting massive infusions of Chinese and Soviet aid even while the US was cutting aid to South Vietnam. Najibullah lasted 3 years after the withdrawal of Soviet troops, but his government fell only after Soviet aid was cut off. Assuming US aid to the Afghan security forces remains at around $5b a year, there’s no reason to think the Afghan government will fall.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_in_the_Vietnam_War#Confronting_U.S._escalation
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2018-10/54219-oco_spending.pdf
The reality of counter-insurgency is that it takes decades, assuming the government is unwilling to engage in mass killings that remove significant numbers of enemy civilians from the chessboard. The Colombian counterinsurgency war has been going on for 50+ years. Morocco fought its Berber rebels for 16 years. The Injuns, of course, gave up their fight only after 300+ years of armed resistance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_conflict
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sahara_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Indian_Wars
A conflict often touted as a shining example of British proficiency in counter-insurgency nonetheless lasted 40 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malayan_Emergency
Pre-Sept 11, Al Queda was brought in as the military arm of the Taliban. Why is there still a Taliban???!
[My memories of April 30, 1979 is sitting on my duffle bag in the company area of Ft. Bragg NC awaiting orders to return, orders that never came even though we promised the South Vietnamese we would if the North violated the peace accords.
I spent 19 months in the Central Highlands, losing 13 buddies and for what?
Why was our sacrifices so easily cast aside by so many?]
[Pre-Sept 11, Al Queda was brought in as the military arm of the Taliban. Why is there still a Taliban???!]
https://www.livius.org/sources/content/diodorus/alexander-sacks-persepolis/
Frankly, Afghanistan is a lost cause - 8 years of Obama has ensured that.
The fact that we are negotiating directly with the re constituted Taliban, which was seriously put fown under President Bush speaks volumes.
It’s not for nothing that a defense intelligence expert told Congress , “ the Taliban is inside the building “ . That building included the White House
No $hit Sherlock!
Were out of here!! The ass wipes can have it.
The only way to avoid that was to leave long ago.
It’s time to cut our losses and learn our lesson.
You can’t defeat Taliban for the reason it is not a formal organization. Taliban is a group of random towelheads with guns bearing that name.
We won’t and shouldn’t do what would be required to defeat them.
Unlike the Roman empire we aren’t willing to commit genocide to bend the survivors to our will.
We had our fill of brutal conquest on our own continent.
America should never have gone abroad in search of monsters to destroy.
Going there in the first place was debatable after 9/11, staying there and going into Iraq was just plain stupid.
“Fighting them over there so we don’t have to fight them here” was a lie, we’ve been radicalizing them over there and importing them over here, it’s time we brought our forces home and dealt with our problems here.
You are generally right. If not for the ‘export of democracy’ all of them couldn’t care less about US. Now combine it with open borders and voila.
Well, maybe the “government” should have spent the last 10+ years establishing itself rather than enriching itself.....
meh
Yahoo ain’t where I go to get analysis
What the Aghan military needs desperately is a shitload of helicopters of every type. That is the key to attacking the enemy anywhere in the country, supporting friendly forces on the ground or under attack in the cities/towns, delivering supplies, medevacing the wounded/sick, and being a constant threat from above.
This was the major problem in Cambodia. I travelled there as a guest of the government and we had one of 6 helicopters in the country at our disposal, but it was a So. Vietnamese chopper. The Cambodians didn’t have anything worthy of their own. The same for their Air Force.
I saw two French Fougha Magister trainers fly over and I know that had a few T-28’s. The MIG 15’s on Ponchentong airfield couldnt’ fly because they had not part with which to fix them.
The (late 1970) Cambodian Army weapons (including those of their militia, often looked like a walking museum from WW1 (they had the old, very long Enfield/Springfield rifles, a No. Korean machinegun on a bike, assorted rifles and a couple 105’s (Rockford Arsenal, 1942 on the carriage).
We have to bomb the hell out of key Taliban towns and some parts of cities they hold, just to let them know what the cost of the war will be on their people (screw collateral damage). They need to be buried knee deep in blood now so that they might pull back into a stale-mate like in Iraq.
Otherwise, a major US withdrawal could lead to another major bloodbath like that which followed our leaving SVN (I’m considered somewhat of an expert, or at least a specialist on the “bloodbath theory” for both SVN and Cambodia as my congressional testimonies warned of what would happen if the communists took over in both countries. Sadly I was right, as my mentors Doug Pike and others taught me early on.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.