Posted on 09/05/2019 8:31:58 AM PDT by Innovative
I don’t understand why Trump “needs a deal?” China trade is a very small part of overall USA GDP. Yes, the stock market could get a nice short-term boost from headlines, but the incidence of a future recession in the USA has almost nothing to do with China.
Re-orienting trade with China is a long-term, strategic project. We know China is a mercantilist country that plans trade to simply gain intellectual property, technology and to boost its own interests. Trump has finally forced America to recognize this, but its been a situation 40 years in the making, and fixing it will take many years.
There’s reference in the article to the US acceding to the fact “Chinese will cannot be crushed”.
The implication is the US is caving.
If so, Trump will not win reelection.
Bring it back to the USA. We have free trade between the 50 states. Americans need to work too.
“Trump needs a deal more than China does”
Absolutely not. The Communist Party in China could lose its grip on the people if they lose our market. They need us to the point that they could collapse without our consumer markets buying their cheap shite.
Also the PMI index today was a big upward number as well as ADP jobs index, we are not even close to a recession.
If the Fed gets its act together...we may not see a recession for 4-5 years. Manufacturing is only about 15% of our GDP...a downtrend exists there, but even without rate cuts we wont hit a recession for at least another 2-3 years.
Rates will get cut.
Trump wins.
Is it possible that the Chinese government is manipulating our stock market by shorting selected stocks after they back away from a deal?
If you asked economists from the EU, S. Korea, Japan, Vietnam, India, China or Taiwan whether the protectionist tariffs, tariffs all of them use against the USA’s imports to their respective nations, were beneficial to their countries economy and in general a great thing, what would they tell you?
Myths are perpetuated by the intellectually lazy.
I honestly don’t know if they have enough clout to do that. But Chinese policy points to “unrestricted warfare”. They will attack us by any means they see benefit in.
I would expect several, maybe even “many” trade enticements, followed by pulling the football away Lucy attacks.
The CCP is weaker than people think, albeit it’s ruthless hold on power. Hong Kong shows some weakness imo.
They do not care about putting their people in pain. But the will of the CCP only goes as far as they see themselves losing control and power.
They are our enemies and they are in a state of “unrestricted war”.
“I haven’t the tiniest doubt the (communists) will be lying”
No doubt. (communist lips moving = lying)
They just need a new tactic, because the costs on them (and the risks) are getting serious.
“Better off with the tariffs.”
“The longer this goes, the less likely China will be able to unring the bell”
That is the big picture.
In the meantime, there will be lots of small movements and statements, to try to calm markets, or tactically delay some impacts (like possibly delaying the new tariffs scheduled to start on 1 Oct, just before “talks”).
But ultimately, we need a secure supply chain outside of communist control, and to rebuild our domestic capacity.
“when the US exits the Postal Union”
That is going to mostly hit small businesses in China, who market through Amazon and Alibaba and some mid-sized businesses who provide relatively modest-sized shipments of components and materials.
It will be a hit on Chinese producers and distributors, but not as significant overall as the tariffs.
I think you’re forgetting about the billions & billions of dollars that are being added to our treasury via the China tariffs, which will be used to offset any downward pressure on the economy. Trump knows what he’s doing, probably better than anyone.
Trump doesn’t cave.
He may just work it to allow the Chinese to “save face”, which is a big deal with the Chinese.
Those billions are first being taken out of our economy.
Americans pay the tariffs in the first place, not the Chinese.
Should just put a tariff on all those hell-hole countries anyway. Trump can just say that they have no Environmental/ Labor laws so then the libs wouldn’t be able to disagree with him.
Bad news if true, the tariffs should be higher and permanent.
You still don’t get it
The tariffs were implemented to force concessions. The President is a businessman and knows tariffs are detrimental to Free Trade
What are these “code books”?
There is no “code book” to tell me (or some Chinese) how to make, on their own, a particularly effective fishing lure. They might be able to pick it up by studying fishing forums for a good while, but even then they’d mostly just be copying something existing, not figuring out something new from actual research on how fish brains work.
There is no “code book” to tell anyone how to make a superlative sounding loudspeaker (nor do I know of any designed without the input of non-mainland-Chinese engineers, unless they are copies.)
There is no “code book” to tell the Chinese how to make a sports car as fun to drive as my old Mazda MX-3 GS. Again, they might be able to copy it, but they’d likely miss some of the subtle stuff, and they’d almost certainly get undercut by cutting corners - a 90 % of the time Chinese pastime.
Now, don’t get me wrong. If a Chinese company hires a few Western or Japanese engineers, they can be “dangerous”. In a few areas where they have long background, such as ceramics, and corner cutting can be rejected by a very tough management attitude, the Chinese can be REALLY good. I do have some direct experience with this: Of all the suppliers my company tried, there was one that was just flat out better quality than the US competition - and lower price, too. The Chinese are in many cases willing to do capital investment that US firms won’t, thereby beating us in automation of factories, and / or efficiency, even before the low wages come into play. But, on the flip side, my experience with Chinese engineers and techs is that they do NOT in general have our effective ingenuity: There is a degree of cultural rigidity that tends to suppress it. A few break that mold, or partially do, and those that come here for several years are most likely to succeed in that. But, they are the exception.
The problem is that the US consumer has been dumbed down in many of these things, therefor mostly copied commodities and low-bar designs of questionable quality suffice — and here the Chinese can make a killing. Most US manufacturers do too little, anymore, in most areas of endeavor, to develop a demanding and discerning market. I’ve seen it from the inside. Too many US companies are lazy in this regard.
Compare this to, of all things, the thriving winery business that has popped up in all sorts of places in the US. (Most anywhere where decent grapes will grow.) Does Wally-World or Kroger or IGA sell cheap Chinese wine? Not in my area. They have product from many US locations, and particularly a good selection from local wineries, which wineries have built up a darn good reputation AND a customer expectation of a good product at a good price.
That’s not a comparable business? Ok, look at Subaru, churning out vehicles as fast as they can, in Lafayette, Indiana. They are increasing market share every year, year after year after year.
Having been involved in design and manufacturing for a long time, I say: 1) Don’t strangle ourselves @ home. 2) Stomp on the IP theft as hard as possible (we can then move ahead quickly.) 3) Fair trade deals. 4) Somehow refocus consumers on lasting quality.
Given those things, we’ll smoke ‘em (the Chinese.)
“China needs a deal more than we do.”
>
But Trump needs a deal more than
everyone else does.
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